NHL · resolved market
KHL: Avtomobilist Yekaterinburg vs. Metallurg Magnitogorsk
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfda8416357b935c3f5e734601883820ad9f92559eb5a2aec1056a767d7359208
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Metallurg Magnitogorskof Avtomobilist Yekaterinburg, Metallurg Magnitogorsk
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,492
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,784
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,492 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Avtomobilist Yekaterinburg | 49c | 719.65$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.14 | 1,301 | 52.6%684 W · 617 L | +23.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54bf…0eb3backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 55c | 458.03$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40f8…327dbacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 51c | 294.37$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.24 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 851 | 48.5%413 W · 438 L | -48.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Avtomobilist Yekaterinburg | 49c | 160$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cff…6471backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 52c | 80.61$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.69 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…50d3backed Avtomobilist Yekaterinburg | 80c | 75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.6wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc995…25c2backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 55c | 71.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea7a…446bbacked Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 55c | 55.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Avtomobilist Yekaterinburg | 51c | 41.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -5.0wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 49c | 35.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…bbb5backed Avtomobilist Yekaterinburg | 49c | 29.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 53c | 24.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 113 | 53.1%60 W · 53 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa393…29f7backed Avtomobilist Yekaterinburg | 48c | 24.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e15…1e89backed Metallurg Magnitogorsk | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.