Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Liberty Flames (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfdd1b965738c1d6a469254fff2c84d5aba12c7df1d45d6c3f9fe221909b9ebdb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New Mexico State Aggiesof Liberty Flames, New Mexico State Aggies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,312
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,395
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,312 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Liberty Flames | 50c | 3,858$1,911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,910.87 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe248…f293backed New Mexico State Aggies | 50c | 3,440$1,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,719.85 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +38.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked New Mexico State Aggies | 50c | 3,060$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,529.81 | 231 | 49.8%115 W · 116 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Liberty Flames | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 354 | 52.3%185 W · 169 L | +17.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Liberty Flames | 50c | 2,562$1,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,276.19 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7e…0f7abacked New Mexico State Aggies | 51c | 2,229$1,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,092.42 | 232 | 48.3%112 W · 120 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked New Mexico State Aggies | 50c | 724$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed New Mexico State Aggies | 51c | 199.8$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.78 | 574 | 48.3%277 W · 297 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Liberty Flames | 50c | 181.2$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.6 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Liberty Flames | 49c | 114$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.86 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd63…a39abacked Liberty Flames | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -7.3wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a79…82acbacked New Mexico State Aggies | 50c | 74.36$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed New Mexico State Aggies | 50c | 57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 635 | 51.5%327 W · 308 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed New Mexico State Aggies | 50c | 56.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbc…3b01backed New Mexico State Aggies | 50c | 56.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked New Mexico State Aggies | 51c | 50.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 693 | 50.4%349 W · 344 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5562…3b41backed Liberty Flames | 53c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f9…607ebacked New Mexico State Aggies | 51c | 48.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 321 | 46.7%150 W · 171 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Liberty Flames | 50c | 43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,155 | 50.4%582 W · 573 L | -34.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Liberty Flames | 50c | 29.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 210 | 59.5%125 W · 85 L | +17.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ab…4d2dbacked Liberty Flames | 51c | 20.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked New Mexico State Aggies | 51c | 20.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Liberty Flames | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Liberty Flames (-3.5)this page
- Liberty Flames vs. New Mexico State AggiesLiberty Flames won
- Liberty Flames vs. New Mexico State Aggies: O/U 143.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.