Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe17f67030398e481d3b4031ff4adee659cac8d5a43c3e9762b4beb1499e862e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,570
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,769
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,570 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 19c | 327.44$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 323.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 244.88$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.03 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 16c | 236.14$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 75c | 235.16$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.92 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed Yes | 18c | 189.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 23c | 140.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd540…f3dbbacked Yes | 39c | 134.18$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 78c | 129.55$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 9c | 128.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 33c | 126.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.21 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 62c | 118.85$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.91 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed Yes | 23c | 118.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 109.74$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 73c | 99.98$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 93.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 91.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.98 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac0…ace0backed No | 78c | 85.47$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 80.1$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 48c | 76.51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 36c | 70.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 41c | 67.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 60c | 67.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 65.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes | 77c | 52.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 79c | 49.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaa…3561backed Yes | 28c | 48.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 62c | 46.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 33c | 43.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 78c | 40.14$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 52c | 31.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 72c | 30.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 69c | 29.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 29.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ada…05b8backed No | 68c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 75c | 25.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 60c | 24.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 72c | 24.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 69c | 21.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…ef71backed No | 75c | 20.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 72c | 19.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 18.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 80c | 18.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 70c | 17.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…a323backed No | 62c | 17.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 69°F or below on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 88°F or higher on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on May 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.