CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Ursa (BO3) - BC Game Masters Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe579748c5c2ce7add482b8b44f60b1f73c903d08e7c7f17dbf86deba850f4f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- illwillof illwill, Ursa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,383
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,383 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b59…3aa6backed Ursa | 30c | 5,013$1,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,497.46 | 849 | 58.3%495 W · 354 L | +60.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Ursa | 1c | 3,737$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f99…f4d5backed illwill | 70c | 3,622$2,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,087.09 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79b9…ba2cbacked Ursa | 28c | 2,024$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.72 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ea…43cfbacked Ursa | 28c | 1,918$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.04 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked illwill | 69c | 1,079$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.78 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Ursa | 30c | 1,013$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.12 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f5…1424backed illwill | 72c | 833$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.24 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf96f…51d0backed illwill | 72c | 780$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4772…9f1bbacked illwill | 72c | 673$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.44 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc761…0470backed illwill | 72c | 636$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.08 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…9c28backed illwill | 74c | 605.64$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…b558backed Ursa | 27c | 604$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…5eebbacked Ursa | 28c | 600$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f53…b6a0backed Ursa | 28c | 585$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6b…321fbacked illwill | 72c | 554$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.12 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19e4…a1c6backed illwill | 72c | 464$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.92 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed illwill | 70c | 428.57$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 418 | 47.1%197 W · 221 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ac…2a18backed illwill | 70c | 387.57$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.27 | 251 | 47.8%120 W · 131 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Ursa | 26c | 316.76$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.36 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc77e…c8cdbacked illwill | 72c | 309$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8973…bf39backed illwill | 73c | 303$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64af…71c9backed illwill | 73c | 301$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0c…9db8backed illwill | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…b142backed illwill | 72c | 295$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4727…4b77backed illwill | 72c | 291$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8346…ddbcbacked illwill | 72c | 290$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24eb…75eebacked illwill | 69c | 202.11$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.65 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…e4a9backed illwill | 71c | 182.3$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.87 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Ursa | 29c | 182.3$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.87 | 1,573 | 35.3%556 W · 1,017 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Ursa | 31c | 170.94$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.62 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Ursa | 30c | 160.46$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 872 | 44.8%391 W · 481 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d1…f540backed Ursa | 30c | 156.38$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.91 | 178 | 49.4%88 W · 90 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9a01backed Ursa | 14c | 147.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 439 | 33.7%148 W · 291 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Ursa | 36c | 144.48$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.49 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked illwill | 71c | 117.88$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x757d…1496backed Ursa | 25c | 117.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa1…dc77backed Ursa | 20c | 100.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked illwill | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 956 | 42.6%407 W · 549 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…222bbacked Ursa | 29c | 81.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Ursa | 27c | 78.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x141d…cdadbacked Ursa | 31c | 76.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked illwill | 66c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 916 | 48.9%448 W · 468 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed illwill | 69c | 69.82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 217 | 52.5%114 W · 103 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked illwill | 70c | 67.08$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 130 | 53.8%70 W · 60 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…2269backed illwill | 70c | 64.77$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 157 | 65%102 W · 55 L | +15.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc093…de0ebacked Ursa | 30c | 57.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed illwill | 70c | 53.76$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 456 | 39.3%179 W · 277 L | -29.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8776…f2efbacked illwill | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3db4…d69bbacked illwill | 55c | 38.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 750 | 56.8%426 W · 324 L | +47.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47b8…76f2backed illwill | 73c | 36.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked illwill | 69c | 36.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x931c…bf4bbacked illwill | 73c | 28.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 323 | 51.4%166 W · 157 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf58…711fbacked illwill | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed illwill | 71c | 21.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 610 | 54.9%335 W · 275 L | +10.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37d7…f131backed illwill | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 334 | 51.5%172 W · 162 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5309…c6c7backed illwill | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 151 | 51.7%78 W · 73 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f50…e59ebacked illwill | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 117 | 58.1%68 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed illwill | 69c | 15.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 291 | 28.5%83 W · 208 L | -30.2wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs Ursa (BO3) - BC Game Masters Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs Ursa - Map 2 Winnerillwill won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.