Fifa International · resolved market
Will Wales win on 2025-09-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfeac7b78ac51177278ee403c68580396bc8e95564511082a35dbb2cb01faaddd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,727
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,429
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,727 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 5c | 3,109$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,961.91 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbe…819ebacked No | 60c | 2,617$1,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,055.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 40c | 1,600$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.83 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Yes | 38c | 1,500$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 211 | 40.3%85 W · 126 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 41c | 831$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.71 | 107 | 48.6%52 W · 55 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…4ebabacked Yes | 40c | 750$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 40c | 750$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 145 | 28.3%41 W · 104 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e0…4983backed Yes | 39c | 679.15$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 61c | 611.69$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.56 | 120 | 47.5%57 W · 63 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 62c | 526.31$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.02 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed No | 62c | 400$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 24c | 355.59$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…3d6ebacked Yes | 39c | 234.56$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.48 | 302 | 20.2%61 W · 241 L | -15.6wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed No | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f4…55c1backed Yes | 55c | 181.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd561…9423backed Yes | 41c | 51.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…9c02backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +11.0wins | +0.16per pick | 23cpaid | +69%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…475abacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 36c | 39.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85cc…4895backed Yes | 41c | 31.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…956abacked Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Wales win on 2025-09-09?this page
- Will Canada win on 2025-09-09?Yes won
- Will Wales vs. Canada end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.