Golf · resolved market
Will Ludvig Aberg finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfec1a388e42048ac12ce8cb30802db3376a6ab0f25dde138615e3fcbb5d12c15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Golfevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $778
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $778 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 4 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Golf is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Golf | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f4d…3e2cbacked No | 17c | 102.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…728abacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 17c | 94.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Golf and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ludvig Aberg finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard?this page
- Will Harris English finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard?No won
- Will Hideki Matsuyama finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard?No won
- Will Nicolai Hojgaard finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard?No won
- Will Rory McIlroy finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard?No won
- Will Russell Henley finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard?Yes won
- Will Scottie Scheffler finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard?No won
- Will Stephan Jaeger finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard?No won
- Will Tom Hoge finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard?No won
- Will Tommy Fleetwood finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard?No won
- Will Viktor Hovland finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.