College Football · resolved market
Spread: Washington State (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff9253cab6fff89b2aa5621dd35ee983778f00e99f4e03a7cbead6bb2ece9366
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Stateof Washington State, Toledo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,228
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,297
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,228 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Washington State | 47c | 14,264$6,704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,559.87 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac0d…b006backed Toledo | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,300 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…9ed3backed Toledo | 53c | 2,855$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Toledo | 53c | 2,431$1,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,288.49 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Washington State | 47c | 2,388$1,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,254.21 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Toledo | 53c | 1,700$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901 | 176 | 55.1%97 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Washington State | 46c | 400$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Washington State | 47c | 272.93$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.65 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Toledo | 54c | 225.93$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Washington State | 47c | 159.57$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.57 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Toledo | 53c | 129.72$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Toledo | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Washington State | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -7.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked Washington State | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec8b…3e83backed Washington State | 52c | 48.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c3…f46ebacked Washington State | 51c | 35.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington State (-1.5)this page
- Toledo vs. Washington StateWashington State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.