Serie A · one pick
Wallet 0x01af…7bc2 got this right.
AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: Venezia FC O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0x01af8bb6abbcff287e8a726a1c5f39dd0b427bc2/m/0x3723548a5d0526bb03405c30cedf22fe61c175359d44ff78218d79bcbd7e08ef
Rebuilt .
What this wallet called, and what happened
- Backed
- Underat 45c — the average price it paid on that side
- What happened
- Under won · US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Position
- 195.56 shares$88 spent on the side it backed
- P/L held to resolution
- +$107.56+122.2% on this pick, not cash withdrawn
TailMyPicks grades a pick on the market’s winning outcome whether or not the wallet sold beforehand — buying the winner at 40c and selling at 80c is still a correct forecast. Backed is the side left once opposing buys cancel each other share for share, so a fully hedged market yields no pick at all.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
One call is not a record. Here is this wallet’s whole Serie A record.
| Wallet | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x01af…7bc2in Serie A | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
These 7 columns describe every qualified pick this wallet holds in Serie A and say nothing about the market above. vs expected is the number of wins over what the prices it paid already implied, which is what separates a forecaster from somebody who bought favourites.
From here
- This wallet’s whole record, category by categoryEvery category it is scored in, with the ones below 50 counted as loudly as the ones above.
- Everyone who was on this market13 wallets hold a qualified pick here, largest position first, each with its Serie A record.
- Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)The venue’s own page for the question. TailMyPicks never calls Polymarket while rendering — this is a link you follow, not a request this page makes.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.