Serie A · resolved market
AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: Venezia FC O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3723548a5d0526bb03405c30cedf22fe61c175359d44ff78218d79bcbd7e08ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,517
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,517 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 78c | 533.94$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.89 | 550 | 38.9%214 W · 336 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7307…4231backed Over | 18c | 528.56$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01af…7bc2backed Under | 45c | 195.56$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 55c | 195.56$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.56 | 474 | 47.9%227 W · 247 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Over | 54c | 120.48$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.85 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee3…a899backed Under | 51c | 98.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c20…2256backed Under | 44c | 91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Over | 45c | 75.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 48c | 75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 56c | 37.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 368 | 27.4%101 W · 267 L | -13.3wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: Venezia FC O/U 0.5this page
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: AC Milan 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: AC Milan O/U 0.5Over won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: AC Milan O/U 1.5Over won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: Venezia FC 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: Venezia FC 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: Venezia FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)AC Milan won
- Spread: AC Milan (-2.5)Venezia FC won
- Spread: Venezia FC (-1.5)AC Milan won
- Spread: Venezia FC (-2.5)AC Milan won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.