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Serie A · resolved market

AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$115,739
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$124,222

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,739 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Serie A
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x34a1…7622backed Under66c11,738$7,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,027.611136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Over24c10,947$2,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,626.1938039.7%151 W · 229 L+1.4wins0.00per pick39cpaid-15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x821d…cf16backed Under69c10,558$7,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,305.672128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-59.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over56c7,017$3,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,929.6932950.5%166 W · 163 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e63…0857backed Over3c5,667$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over57c3,489$1,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,988.3114441%59 W · 85 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under43c3,197$1,377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,820.1747447.9%227 W · 247 L+12.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Under43c2,870$1,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,624.177856.4%44 W · 34 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under71c2,837$2,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$822.3936827.4%101 W · 267 L-13.3wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa24e…1be8backed Over44c2,547$1,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,118.740%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Over57c2,521$1,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,434.9911636.2%42 W · 74 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64c4…1018backed Over57c2,000$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,14060%0 W · 6 L-2.8wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x76bc…fccabacked Over38c1,829$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.99450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+95.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under43c1,593$691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902.2544654.7%244 W · 202 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24ae…d35bbacked Under44c1,500$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$840650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over26c1,391$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.0451349.3%253 W · 260 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under43c1,172$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.7872050.1%361 W · 359 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Over42c1,024$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.9941841.1%172 W · 246 L-1.5wins0.00per pick41cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0a6…2a95backed Over55c892.27$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.53425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-58.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6534…7cc7backed Under45c857$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.351181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.8wins+0.35per pick47cpaid+70.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe419…8aedbacked Under71c845.38$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.151323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-66.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x851b…961ebacked Over40c758.93$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Under79c679.49$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.43250%16 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-30%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x240a…814cbacked Over56c664.62$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.192867.9%19 W · 9 L+4.5wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+22.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over57c643$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.494447.7%21 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f2b…d743backed Over8c625$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505036%18 W · 32 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0e7…9461backed Over24c610.05$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.92633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-35.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd202…1ef5backed Over12c568.16$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.1830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafd0…ebd0backed Over6c555.91$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.840%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Over11c399.87$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6932939.5%130 W · 199 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Over53c377.36$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005349.1%26 W · 27 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Under65c361.49$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.521553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8366…54ffbacked Over13c360.34$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over28c336.99$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.0624846.4%115 W · 133 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7091…96f8backed Under43c300$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1712846.4%13 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc057…4d23backed Over14c300$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57ef…044abacked Over56c285.48$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a47…3b21backed Under44c282$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.92977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.26per pick52cpaid+41.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2810…a1a8backed Under46c193.77$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.6310543.8%46 W · 59 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbedb…6bc3backed Over56c178.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+27.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3ae…d117backed Under45c175$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Under62c164.4$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.914846.6%69 W · 79 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3696…69cebacked Over55c150$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.59053.3%48 W · 42 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Over29c136$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.841435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-36.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Over26c133$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.588248.8%40 W · 42 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01d7…5fd2backed Under79c126.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.582770.4%19 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb697…5d0cbacked Over56c125$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+56.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd010…2ee6backed Under44c120$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.2666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb428…74c8backed Under44c113.64$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.641030%3 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0b…4771backed Over45c109.18$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.13450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+37.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5266…aac8backed Over55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551060%6 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+51.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f84…67efbacked Over11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1112722.8%29 W · 98 L-7.3wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-32.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0145…35d0backed Over57c87.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over24c82.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2091243.3%395 W · 517 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over54c79.98$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1934853.7%187 W · 161 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over56c74.96$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1623839.1%93 W · 145 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5981…3934backed Over25c74.84$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.713250%16 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+27.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Under43c74.72$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.5940847.1%192 W · 216 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23fe…0b95backed Over56c71.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-38.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2827…4ee7backed Over57c70.18$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+35.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x333f…3cd6backed Over55c68.55$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.730%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under43c58.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.6367553.8%363 W · 312 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfbe…ccebbacked Over56c53.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f41…8f27backed Over57c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.51540%6 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Under43c49.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.59255.4%51 W · 41 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e24…dbd6backed Over55c45.45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7523…68a0backed Over42c39.79$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.77366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+31%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ad6…eab6backed Under70c38.72$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.75666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x370b…bb29backed Over53c37.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8d9…1059backed Over55c36.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.16757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+24%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdae…6ad2backed Over57c35.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202850%14 W · 14 L-4.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-26.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7541…963ebacked Over57c35.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbbe4…4ab1backed Under46c32.61$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Under45c30.3$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6743955.4%243 W · 196 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a24…36ddbacked Under44c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick35cpaid+56.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9f1…23eebacked Under44c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.86040%24 W · 36 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x056b…5a03backed Under44c27.81$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.57757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+19.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58e4…3876backed Over56c26.79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15825%2 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-61.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbe2b…de68backed Over57c26.32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+34.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd59f…dd3fbacked Over44c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-18.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Over52c24.75$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.874242.9%18 W · 24 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.