Serie A · resolved market
AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1a6dd3705ca80000804db5ba509d792caaa547637d90d09f7f287f499ac72d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8191…da72backed Under | 70c | 18,022$12,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,482.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…2e23backed Over | 0c | 17,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 24c | 11,199$2,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,735.5 | 368 | 27.4%101 W · 267 L | -13.3wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 14c | 9,581$1,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,376.96 | 2,023 | 39.4%798 W · 1,225 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Over | 28c | 4,135$1,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,148.38 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Over | 73c | 1,072$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.65 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06a…101dbacked Over | 35c | 699.99$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 55c | 555.61$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.01 | 550 | 38.9%214 W · 336 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x308b…b223backed Over | 45c | 555.56$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 34c | 547.12$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.15 | 248 | 46.4%115 W · 133 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Under | 38c | 500$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…8aedbacked Over | 18c | 485.68$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.29 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x168c…f24bbacked Under | 65c | 245.89$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…1366backed Over | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc64f…ad00backed Over | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…c7b6backed Under | 50c | 124$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5266…aac8backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 26c | 93.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 27c | 82.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.58 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…760ebacked Over | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd170…a9d9backed Over | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 184 | 54.9%101 W · 83 L | +16.3wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 67c | 64.41$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 27c | 41.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 675 | 53.8%363 W · 312 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d2…c938backed Over | 73c | 34.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5this page
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: AC Milan 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: AC Milan O/U 0.5Over won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: AC Milan O/U 1.5Over won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: Venezia FC 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: Venezia FC 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: Venezia FC O/U 0.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: Venezia FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)AC Milan won
- Spread: AC Milan (-2.5)Venezia FC won
- Spread: Venezia FC (-1.5)AC Milan won
- Spread: Venezia FC (-2.5)AC Milan won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.