Serie A · resolved market
AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70484a6522228b98599ba8ed18436f3d49f27b05b38c1575baab33bc7e1c1e18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,463
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,478
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,463 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Under | 77c | 421.35$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.26 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x851b…961ebacked Over | 38c | 397.37$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 62c | 337.37$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.2 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 65c | 285.7$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.32 | 2,023 | 39.4%798 W · 1,225 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…1366backed Over | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86fc…2715backed Over | 34c | 175$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 184 | 54.9%101 W · 83 L | +16.3wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5266…aac8backed Over | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 63c | 73.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.31 | 675 | 53.8%363 W · 312 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2deb…a787backed Over | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Over | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 64c | 30.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 439 | 55.4%243 W · 196 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Under | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 720 | 50.1%361 W · 359 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…e0f2backed Under | 70c | 28.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5this page
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: AC Milan 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: AC Milan O/U 0.5Over won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: AC Milan O/U 1.5Over won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: Venezia FC 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: Venezia FC 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: Venezia FC O/U 0.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: Venezia FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)AC Milan won
- Spread: AC Milan (-2.5)Venezia FC won
- Spread: Venezia FC (-1.5)AC Milan won
- Spread: Venezia FC (-2.5)AC Milan won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.