Serie A · resolved market
Spread: AC Milan (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b7926be226caaf217a50e410d0b07590161a785384af128bd09abdee8bd44f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Venezia FCof AC Milan, Venezia FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,191
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,474
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,191 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed AC Milan | 22c | 34,361$7,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,500 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Venezia FC | 78c | 22,785$17,773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,012.81 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Venezia FC | 80c | 3,973$3,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.69 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Venezia FC | 78c | 3,231$2,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.45 | 380 | 39.7%151 W · 229 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Venezia FC | 78c | 2,545$1,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.87 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed Venezia FC | 79c | 1,000$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked AC Milan | 23c | 999.99$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Venezia FC | 79c | 970.2$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.74 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Venezia FC | 79c | 843.85$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.58 | 446 | 54.7%244 W · 202 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…1366backed AC Milan | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd36a…ade5backed AC Milan | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…6bc3backed AC Milan | 21c | 473.26$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.38 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed AC Milan | 22c | 435$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.7 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x240a…814cbacked AC Milan | 21c | 416.44$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.45 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…0b95backed AC Milan | 21c | 190.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e7…9461backed AC Milan | 13c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Venezia FC | 78c | 108.23$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 675 | 53.8%363 W · 312 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Venezia FC | 78c | 87$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 550 | 38.9%214 W · 336 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Venezia FC | 78c | 64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Venezia FC | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Venezia FC | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Venezia FC | 78c | 39.23$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Venezia FC | 78c | 39.23$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Venezia FC | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 53 | 67.9%36 W · 17 L | +7.3wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Venezia FC | 75c | 29.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 17 | 94.1%16 W · 1 L | +3.3wins | +0.20per pick | 74cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Venezia FC | 79c | 22.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 60cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Venezia FC | 79c | 19.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2a…64ddbacked Venezia FC | 79c | 16.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad6…eab6backed Venezia FC | 79c | 13.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.87 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: AC Milan (-2.5)this page
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: AC Milan 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: AC Milan O/U 0.5Over won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: AC Milan O/U 1.5Over won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: Venezia FC 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: Venezia FC 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: Venezia FC O/U 0.5Under won
- AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: Venezia FC O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)AC Milan won
- Spread: Venezia FC (-1.5)AC Milan won
- Spread: Venezia FC (-2.5)AC Milan won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.