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Serie A · resolved market

AC Milan vs. Venezia FC: AC Milan 1st Half O/U 0.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,416
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,430

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,416 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Serie A
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3be2…91a0backed Over63c793.65$500 inLost-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under38c686.93$259 inWon+$427.555038.9%214 W · 336 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under37c337.3$125 inWon+$212.547447.9%227 W · 247 L+12.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x65b5…aa71backed Over63c330.41$208 inLost-$208.164967.3%33 W · 16 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under37c283$105 inWon+$178.2936827.4%101 W · 267 L-13.3wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9fc…2b03backed Over60c167.08$100 inLost-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a8b…6a9fbacked Over63c55.56$35 inLost-$3510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd4b…d965backed Under37c42$16 inWon+$26.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeee0…718bbacked Over62c40.32$25 inLost-$25250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.