MLB · one pick
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0x2849cded4b81e03b6d59611da2ba0f18996b3d49/m/0xa75da8dbd8ec6c97c6f983d0c196b7f21159b5bb7aaced5912472ebf2de8d6ef
Wallet 0x2849…3d49 got this wrong.
Rebuilt .
What this wallet picked, and what happened
- Backed
- Minnesota Twinsat 39c, the average price it paid on that side
- What happened
- Arizona Diamondbacks won · US Eastern time, the time zone Polymarket uses for its markets
- Position
- 144.52 shares$57 spent on the side it backed
- P/L held to the end
- -$56.64-100% on this pick, not cash withdrawn
TailMyPicks grades a pick on how the market settled, even if the wallet sold before: buying the winner at 40c and selling at 80c is still a correct forecast. Backed is the side left once buys on opposite sides cancel out, share for share. So a fully hedged market gives no pick at all.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored: positions held to the end, in markets that passed the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance. Open positions are never counted on this site.
One pick is not a record. Here is this wallet’s whole MLB record.
What these columns mean
- Qualified picks
- Every pick this wallet made in this category that is big enough to count as a real opinion, and cheap enough for a follower to still get the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
- Win rate
- How often this wallet's qualified picks won, with the wins and losses beside it: 62% of 11 picks is not the same as 62% of 1,100. Every pick is held to the end: it is graded on how the market settled, even if the wallet sold early. No board is ranked by this, because favourites win often.
- vs expected
- Wins, minus the wins the prices this wallet paid already implied. +8 means eight more wins than those prices were pricing in. This number tells a forecaster apart from someone who bought favourites.
- Realizable edge
- Per qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, after charging the worse price a follower gets. Edge is what the wallet got; this is what tailing it would have got. If two cents more a share wipes the edge out, a follower can't use it.
- Avg entry
- The average price this wallet paid, in cents, over its qualified picks, weighted by how much it put on each. Only buys count: selling later does not change it. 88c next to a 90% win rate means a record built on heavy favourites.
- ROI per pick
- The average return on one pick, held to the end. Every pick counts the same, whatever its size. That is how this column tells a record earned over many picks from one carried by a few large ones.
- Tail Score
- The number wallets are ranked by in a category: the wallet's edge per pick, pulled toward zero so a short lucky run can't beat a long record, then graded out of 100 on a scale that never moves. 50 means no edge at all. A score screenshotted today means the same thing in six months. The scale is published with the scores it grades.
| Wallet | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x2849…3d49in MLB | 268 | 57.8%155 W · 113 L | +26.3 | +0.10 | 48c | +18.4% | 60 |
These 7 columns cover every qualified pick this wallet has in MLB. They say nothing about the market above. vs expected is the number of wins beyond what the prices it paid already implied. It tells a forecaster apart from someone who bought favourites.
From here
- This wallet’s whole record, category by categoryEvery category it is scored in, with the ones below 50 shown as clearly as the ones above.
- Everyone who was on this market344 wallets hold a qualified pick here, largest position first, each with its MLB record.
- Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)Polymarket’s own page for the question. Opening it is up to you: this page asks Polymarket for nothing.
Not every trade counts. A pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks only scores what a wallet can be judged on: positions held to the end, in markets with enough volume to count, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has settled, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by us, not measured.