Australian A League · one pick
Wallet 0x840d…3708 got this right.
Macarthur FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0x840d209477f4178c73c17fa1c1f5ab1c08b73708/m/0xa554e55b41e11014d5b1a51f99b3c98db6a3d5be2c7e7606f61cfaf9e73f4ce0
Rebuilt .
What this wallet called, and what happened
- Backed
- Underat 73c — the average price it paid on that side
- What happened
- Under won · US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Position
- 170.63 shares$124 spent on the side it backed
- P/L held to resolution
- +$46.27+37.2% on this pick, not cash withdrawn
TailMyPicks grades a pick on the market’s winning outcome whether or not the wallet sold beforehand — buying the winner at 40c and selling at 80c is still a correct forecast. Backed is the side left once opposing buys cancel each other share for share, so a fully hedged market yields no pick at all.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
One call is not a record. Here is this wallet’s whole Australian A League record.
| Wallet | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x840d…3708in Australian A League | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
These 7 columns describe every qualified pick this wallet holds in Australian A League and say nothing about the market above. vs expected is the number of wins over what the prices it paid already implied, which is what separates a forecaster from somebody who bought favourites.
From here
- This wallet’s whole record, category by categoryEvery category it is scored in, with the ones below 50 counted as loudly as the ones above.
- Everyone who was on this market100 wallets hold a qualified pick here, largest position first, each with its Australian A League record.
- Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)The venue’s own page for the question. TailMyPicks never calls Polymarket while rendering — this is a link you follow, not a request this page makes.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.