TailMyPicks
Menu
Pick

Australian A League · one pick

0x9d46…26d8 got this wrong.

Perth Glory FC vs. Melbourne City FC: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

Backed
Overat 52c, the average price it paid on that side
What happened
Under won · US Eastern time, the time zone Polymarket uses for its markets
Position
37 shares$19 spent on the side it backed
P/L held to the end
-$19.24-100% on this pick, not cash withdrawn

TailMyPicks grades a pick on how the market settled, even if the wallet sold before: buying the winner at 40c and selling at 80c is still a correct forecast. Backed is the side left once buys on opposite sides cancel out, share for share. So a fully hedged market gives no pick at all.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored: positions held to the end, in markets that passed the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance. Open positions are never counted on this site.

One pick is not a record. Here is this wallet’s whole Australian A League record.

What these columns mean
Qualified picks
Every pick this wallet made in this category that is big enough to count as a real opinion, and cheap enough for a follower to still get the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
Win rate
How often this wallet's qualified picks won, with the wins and losses beside it: 62% of 11 picks is not the same as 62% of 1,100. Every pick is held to the end: it is graded on how the market settled, even if the wallet sold early. No board is ranked by this, because favourites win often.
vs expected
Wins, minus the wins the prices this wallet paid already implied. +8 means eight more wins than those prices were pricing in. This number tells a forecaster apart from someone who bought favourites.
Realizable edge
Per qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, after charging the worse price a follower gets. Edge is what the wallet got; this is what tailing it would have got. If two cents more a share wipes the edge out, a follower can't use it.
Avg entry
The average price this wallet paid, in cents, over its qualified picks, weighted by how much it put on each. Only buys count: selling later does not change it. 88c next to a 90% win rate means a record built on heavy favourites.
ROI per pick
The average return on one pick, held to the end. Every pick counts the same, whatever its size. That is how this column tells a record earned over many picks from one carried by a few large ones.
Tail Score
The number wallets are ranked by in a category: the wallet's edge per pick, pulled toward zero so a short lucky run can't beat a long record, then graded out of 100 on a scale that never moves. 50 means no edge at all. A score screenshotted today means the same thing in six months. The scale is published with the scores it grades.
WalletQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9d46…26d8in Australian A League2181%17 W · 4 L+3.0+0.1566c+21.6%57

These 7 columns cover every qualified pick this wallet has in Australian A League. They say nothing about the market above. vs expected is the number of wins beyond what the prices it paid already implied. It tells a forecaster apart from someone who bought favourites.

From here

Not every trade counts. A pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks only scores what a wallet can be judged on: positions held to the end, in markets with enough volume to count, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has settled, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by us, not measured.