Australian A League · one pick
Wallet 0xa509…ae46 got this right.
Will Melbourne City FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0xa509ae942ac8d8bc3f8c5df30cb6ae2c9b13ae46/m/0x206446fa2e0dbc0275fdbe7f5dcbbc30eecfdbd8442a732e5daf78bcf773bf16
Rebuilt .
What this wallet called, and what happened
- Backed
- Noat 79c — the average price it paid on that side
- What happened
- No won · US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Position
- 119.81 shares$95 spent on the side it backed
- P/L held to resolution
- +$25.27+26.7% on this pick, not cash withdrawn
TailMyPicks grades a pick on the market’s winning outcome whether or not the wallet sold beforehand — buying the winner at 40c and selling at 80c is still a correct forecast. Backed is the side left once opposing buys cancel each other share for share, so a fully hedged market yields no pick at all.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
One call is not a record. Here is this wallet’s whole Australian A League record.
| Wallet | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa509…ae46in Australian A League | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
These 7 columns describe every qualified pick this wallet holds in Australian A League and say nothing about the market above. vs expected is the number of wins over what the prices it paid already implied, which is what separates a forecaster from somebody who bought favourites.
From here
- This wallet’s whole record, category by categoryEvery category it is scored in, with the ones below 50 counted as loudly as the ones above.
- Everyone who was on this market75 wallets hold a qualified pick here, largest position first, each with its Australian A League record.
- Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)The venue’s own page for the question. TailMyPicks never calls Polymarket while rendering — this is a link you follow, not a request this page makes.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.