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Wallet 0xd12f…e80d

Rebuilt .

Best in NBA853 qualified picks$62,914 staked18 of 30 categories below 50first seen Nov 5, 2025, EST

Score by category

The number wallets are ranked by in a category: the wallet's edge per pick, pulled toward zero so a short lucky run can't beat a long record, then graded out of 100 on a scale that never moves. 50 means no edge at all. A score screenshotted today means the same thing in six months. The scale is published with the scores it grades.30 categories, best first

Parlays in detail

32-0.16 edge/pickInactiveSee the full Parlays board
Qualified picksEvery pick this wallet made in this category that is big enough to count as a real opinion, and cheap enough for a follower to still get the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
43
Win rateHow often this wallet's qualified picks won, with the wins and losses beside it: 62% of 11 picks is not the same as 62% of 1,100. Every pick is held to the end: it is graded on how the market settled, even if the wallet sold early. No board is ranked by this, because favourites win often.
18.6% 8 W · 35 L
vs expectedWins, minus the wins the prices this wallet paid already implied. +8 means eight more wins than those prices were pricing in. This number tells a forecaster apart from someone who bought favourites.
-10.8
Realizable edgePer qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, after charging the worse price a follower gets. Edge is what the wallet got; this is what tailing it would have got. If two cents more a share wipes the edge out, a follower can't use it.
-0.25
Avg entryThe average price this wallet paid, in cents, over its qualified picks, weighted by how much it put on each. Only buys count: selling later does not change it. 88c next to a 90% win rate means a record built on heavy favourites.
44c
ROI per pickThe average return on one pick, held to the end. Every pick counts the same, whatever its size. That is how this column tells a record earned over many picks from one carried by a few large ones.
-65.7%
StakedThe money this wallet put on its qualified picks in this category: what it risked, not how many times it had an opinion. Nine hundred one-dollar picks and nine hundred thousand-dollar picks are not the same wallet. This figure is never added to anything in what this wallet holds right now, below: the two cover different positions, measured on different days.
$2,671
When it betsWhether this wallet bets before the match starts or once it is under way. It shows the share of its qualified picks in this category first bought before the start of play, and the share bought in play, at or after the start. The start is the one Polymarket records: a match's kick-off or, for weather, the start of the day being forecast. An in-play bet is placed while the price is moving, so it is harder to tail in time. This is measured only where play has a start (sports, esports and weather). Under 10 such picks there is no figure, only the count. The figures also show how many picks the shares rest on and how long before or after the start the wallet usually buys: hover them, or open the JSON version of this record.
—no start of play
HoldsHow long this wallet usually keeps what it buys here. It is the median, over every pick it has in this category, of the time from its first buy on the side it was judged on until it sold those shares, or until the market settled if it never sold. When it bets says when the wallet got in. This says how long it stayed, and a wallet can be early and gone in six seconds. It counts every pick, not only the qualified ones, on purpose: otherwise a wallet that flips its expensive positions and holds its cheap ones would be judged on the half that flatters it. TO THE END: most of those picks were held until the market settled. RESELLS: most were sold before that, so following it means selling when it sells. Its record here is scored as if every pick were held to the end. UNFOLLOWABLE: under 1 min, the wallet is left out of this category's ranking. Its edge may be real, but nobody could follow it. We can only see a wallet move every fifteen seconds, so a position that lasts six seconds is gone before you hear about it.
—no market to hold
At your priceWhat a follower would have made on each qualified pick here, buying the same side 2 minutes after this wallet did, at the market price at that moment. Beside it is the edge: what the wallet made at its own price, on the same picks. The word under it is the share of the edge a follower keeps. A wallet is left out of a category's ranking when a follower who bought the same side 2 minutes later would have kept less than 75% of its edge there. The edge may be real, but the price had moved before anyone following could act. This figure is generous to the wallet: a pick nobody traded in that window counts at the wallet's own price. The word also shows how many picks were measured. Realizable edge is a different figure: it charges every pick the same fixed cost, while this one charges each pick what the market charged.
—no market price
Last settledThe day this wallet’s latest qualified pick in this category settled. Days are in US Eastern time, the time zone Polymarket uses for its markets. An American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other time zone would show the day after the game. INACTIVE: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there. The score is kept and the wallet keeps its page here. It only leaves the default leaderboard. If it was in the top 50 and its score would still put it there, it still appears in the feed.
Sep 9, 2026, EDT

If you had taileda hypothetical, not a forecast

Nothing to tail here. This wallet has no qualified Parlays picks that settled in the last 90 days, so there was nothing to put a stake on.

A hypothetical, built only from this wallet’s own qualified Parlays picks. It puts $50 on each one, held to the end, at the price the wallet paid plus the 0c of slippage TailMyPicks adds in its score. It shows what those picks did, not what the next one will do. It is before any fees you pay where you bet.

Parlays picks

SettledTicketResultEntrySizeReturnP/L held
Sep 9, 2026, EDTWill CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-08-26? AND Will CA River Plate win on 2026-08-19?2 legs · legs not recovered from the chainDid not (open this parlay on its own page)48c$39-100%-$39
Sep 6, 2026, EDTFrosinone Calcio vs. Juventus FC: O/U 1.5 AND Pisa SC vs. Calcio Padova: O/U 0.5 AND OFI Crete vs. Volos NPS: O/U 2.53 legs · legs not recovered from the chainDid not (open this parlay on its own page)50c$39-100%-$39
Sep 6, 2026, EDTClub Brugge vs. Cercle Brugge: O/U 1.5 AND Will FK Crvena Zvezda Belgrade win on 2026-08-23? AND Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-08-23? AND Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-08-23?4 legs · legs not recovered from the chainDid not (open this parlay on its own page)29c$30-100%-$30
Sep 6, 2026, EDTClub Atlético de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 1.5 AND AC Horsens vs. Lyngby BK: O/U 1.52 legs · legs not recovered from the chainDid not (open this parlay on its own page)58c$115-100%-$115
Sep 6, 2026, EDTClub Atlético de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 1.5 AND Pogon Szczecin vs. Wisla Krakow: O/U 1.5 AND RKS Radomiak Radom vs. Zaglebie Lubin: O/U 0.5 AND Manchester City FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 1.5 AND PSV vs. FC Groningen: FC Groningen O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Volos NPS (-1.5) AND Spread: Alanyaspor (-1.5) AND Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5) AND Aarhus GF vs. Odense BK: O/U 3.5 AND Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-08-23?10 legs · legs not recovered from the chainDid not (open this parlay on its own page)35c$57-100%-$57
Sep 5, 2026, EDTBrentford FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 1.5 AND PAE PS Kalamata vs. Aris Thessaloniki: O/U 0.5 AND Udinese Calcio vs. Como 1907: O/U 0.5 AND Racing Club de Lens vs. AJ Auxerre: Racing Club de Lens O/U 0.5 AND Spread: Ipswich Town FC (-1.5) AND Will Olympiacos Piraeus win on 2026-08-22?6 legs · legs not recovered from the chainDid not (open this parlay on its own page)45c$130-100%-$130
Sep 4, 2026, EDTWill Legia Warszawa win on 2026-08-22? AND Will FC Basel 1893 win on 2026-08-22?2 legs · legs not recovered from the chainDid not (open this parlay on its own page)24c$25-100%-$25
Sep 4, 2026, EDTSpread: Brentford FC (-1.5) AND Valencia CF vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 1.5 AND Benevento Calcio vs. Modena FC 2018: O/U 1.5 AND Will AEK Athens win on 2026-08-22? AND Will Olympiacos Piraeus win on 2026-08-22? AND Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-08-22?6 legs · legs not recovered from the chainDid not (open this parlay on its own page)21c$49-100%-$49
Sep 4, 2026, EDTReal Betis Balompié vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 0.5 AND Olympique de Marseille vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 0.5 AND Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-21? AND Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-08-21?4 legs · legs not recovered from the chainDid not (open this parlay on its own page)70c$119-100%-$119
Sep 4, 2026, EDTSpread: Bohemians Dublin FC (-1.5) AND Spread: Grazer AK 1902 (-1.5) AND Spread: Al Hazem SC (-1.5) AND Arsenal FC vs. Coventry City FC: O/U 4.5 AND Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-21?5 legs · legs not recovered from the chainDid not (open this parlay on its own page)50c$75-100%-$75
Sep 3, 2026, EDTFC Nordsjælland vs. FC St. Gallen: O/U 1.5 AND Trabzonspor vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 1.5 AND Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-08-20?3 legs · legs not recovered from the chainDid not (open this parlay on its own page)36c$28-100%-$28
Sep 3, 2026, EDTFC Inter Turku vs. FC København: O/U 0.5 AND Mjällby AIF vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 0.52 legs · legs not recovered from the chainDid not (open this parlay on its own page)66c$30-100%-$30
Sep 3, 2026, EDTFC Inter Turku vs. FC København: O/U 0.5 AND Spread: OFI (-1.5) AND Spread: Heart of Midlothian FC (-1.5) AND Spread: Qarabağ Ağdam FK (-1.5) AND Spread: AFC Ajax (-2.5) AND Will Panathinaikós AO win on 2026-08-20? AND Beşiktaş JK to score first vs. FK Kauno Žalgiris? AND Will FC Red Bull Salzburg win on 2026-08-20?8 legs · legs not recovered from the chainDid not (open this parlay on its own page)22c$28-100%-$28
Sep 3, 2026, EDTFC Inter Turku vs. FC København: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Will FC Red Bull Salzburg win on 2026-08-20?2 legs · legs not recovered from the chainDid not (open this parlay on its own page)21c$19-100%-$19
Sep 2, 2026, EDTClub Atlético de Madrid vs. Málaga CF: O/U 0.5 AND Spread: Celtic FC (-2.5) AND NEC vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: O/U 2.53 legs · legs not recovered from the chainDid not (open this parlay on its own page)47c$30-100%-$30
Sep 2, 2026, EDTFC Barcelona vs. AL Ahly SC (EGY): O/U 4.5 AND NEC vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: Both Teams to Score2 legs · legs not recovered from the chainDid not (open this parlay on its own page)29c$24-100%-$24
Sep 2, 2026, EDTŠK Slovan Bratislava vs. NK Celje: Both Teams to Score AND NEC vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: 1st Half O/U 1.52 legs · legs not recovered from the chainDid not (open this parlay on its own page)37c$22-100%-$22
Sep 1, 2026, EDTFenerbahçe SK vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 2.5 AND PFK Levski Sofia vs. AEK: O/U 0.52 legs · legs not recovered from the chainDid not (open this parlay on its own page)48c$40-100%-$40
Aug 31, 2026, EDTCincinnati Open: Arthur Fery vs Alex de Minaur AND Cardiff City FC vs. Wrexham AFC: Wrexham AFC O/U 1.5 AND RC Deportivo A Coruña vs. Elche CF: O/U 0.53 legs · legs not recovered from the chainDid not (open this parlay on its own page)51c$50-100%-$50
Aug 30, 2026, EDTCR Vasco da Gama vs. Santos FC: O/U 0.5 AND Racing Club De Lens vs. Paris Saint-Germain: O/U 1.5 AND Cincinnati Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Talia Gibson3 legs · legs not recovered from the chainDid not (open this parlay on its own page)57c$46-100%-$46
Aug 30, 2026, EDTBeşiktaş JK vs. Eyüpspor: O/U 1.5 AND Gornik Zabrze vs. Wisla Krakow: O/U 1.5 AND Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-08-16?3 legs · legs not recovered from the chainDid not (open this parlay on its own page)56c$51-100%-$51
Aug 30, 2026, EDTArsenal FC vs. Manchester City: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Manchester City (-1.5) AND Spread: Watford FC (-1.5)3 legs · legs not recovered from the chainDid not (open this parlay on its own page)59c$50-100%-$50
Aug 30, 2026, EDTSpread: Villarreal CF (-1.5) AND Will SK Rapid win on 2026-08-16?2 legs · legs not recovered from the chainDid not (open this parlay on its own page)45c$50-100%-$50
Aug 29, 2026, EDTCincinnati Open: Novak Djokovic vs Thiago Agustin Tirante AND Sevilla FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.52 legs · legs not recovered from the chainDid not (open this parlay on its own page)42c$50-100%-$50
Aug 29, 2026, EDTKRC Genk vs. KVC Westerlo: O/U 4.5 AND Oud-Heverlee Leuven vs. Club Brugge: O/U 2.52 legs · legs not recovered from the chainDid not (open this parlay on its own page)32c$25-100%-$25
Showing 25 of 43 parlays, newest first.A parlay pays a dollar a share only if every leg wins, and its Entry is the price of the whole ticket, market maker’s margin included. That is why most of the Parlays board sits below 50, and why that is normal, not a board full of bad forecasters.
About this page

What is a Tail Score?

A score out of 100, per category. 50 means no edge at all: this wallet did about as well as the prices it paid said it would. Above 50, it beat those prices. Below 50, it did worse.

The scale never moves. 100 means beating the prices paid by 0.45 per pick, and 0 means losing to them by the same. That holds for every wallet, on every page, every month. So a score you screenshot today keeps its meaning, and any two wallets can be compared.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, scores run from about 5 to 87. That is the price of a scale that never moves, and it is why a score keeps its meaning.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four picks in five and still score below 50 if the market already priced those outcomes at 90c. It paid for those wins instead of finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry figures of each category tell the two apart.

The score is pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence, on purpose. Three lucky picks do not make a high score. Several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest score over thousands of picks tells you something a high score over twelve does not.

Because of this pull toward 50, a category score is a cautious reading. A wallet’s headline figure is its best category, so it always plays down how badly the wallet does in its worst one. That is why this page scores each category on its own rather than as one blended number.

Not every trade counts. A pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks only scores what a wallet can be judged on: positions held to the end, in markets with enough volume to count, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has settled, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by us, not measured.