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Champions League · one pick

0xd2a2…004a got this right.

Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Backed
Arsenal FCat 45c — the average price it paid on that side
What happened
Arsenal FC won · US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Position
131 shares$59 spent on the side it backed
P/L held to resolution
+$71.7+120.9% on this pick, not cash withdrawn

TailMyPicks grades a pick on the market’s winning outcome whether or not the wallet sold beforehand — buying the winner at 40c and selling at 80c is still a correct forecast. Backed is the side left once opposing buys cancel each other share for share, so a fully hedged market yields no pick at all.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

One call is not a record. Here is this wallet’s whole Champions League record.

What these columns mean
Qualified picks
Every Pick this wallet made in this category that is large enough to be a real opinion and cheap enough that a follower could still have realised the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
Win rate
The share of this wallet's qualified picks whose outcome won, with the wins and the losses beside it — 62% of eleven and 62% of eleven hundred are not the same claim. Held to resolution: a pick is graded on the market's winning outcome whether or not the wallet sold beforehand. No board is ranked by this: favourites win often.
vs expected
Wins, minus the wins the entry prices already implied. Counted in wins: +8 means eight more than the prices this wallet paid were pricing in. It is the number that separates a forecaster from somebody who bought favourites.
Realizable edge
Per qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, once the worse entry price a follower gets is charged against it. The raw edge is what the wallet got; this is what copying it would have got. Edge that vanishes at two cents of slippage was never sellable.
Avg entry
The price this wallet paid, in cents, averaged across its qualified picks and weighted by how much it put on each. Buys only — selling out later does not change it. 88c beside a 90% win rate is a record built on heavy favourites.
ROI per pick
The mean return on one pick, held to resolution, with every pick counted the same regardless of size. That equal weighting is the point: it is what tells a record earned across many picks apart from one carried by a few large ones.
Tail Score
The number a wallet is ranked by in a category: its edge per pick, shrunk toward zero so that a short lucky run cannot outrank a long record, then graded out of 100 on a ruler that never moves. No edge at all grades 50, and a grade screenshotted today still means the same thing in six months. The scale itself is published with the figures it grades; this page holds no copy of it.
Wallet
Qualified picksEvery Pick this wallet made in this category that is large enough to be a real opinion and cheap enough that a follower could still have realised the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
Win rateThe share of this wallet's qualified picks whose outcome won, with the wins and the losses beside it — 62% of eleven and 62% of eleven hundred are not the same claim. Held to resolution: a pick is graded on the market's winning outcome whether or not the wallet sold beforehand. No board is ranked by this: favourites win often.
vs expectedWins, minus the wins the entry prices already implied. Counted in wins: +8 means eight more than the prices this wallet paid were pricing in. It is the number that separates a forecaster from somebody who bought favourites.
Realizable edgePer qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, once the worse entry price a follower gets is charged against it. The raw edge is what the wallet got; this is what copying it would have got. Edge that vanishes at two cents of slippage was never sellable.
Avg entryThe price this wallet paid, in cents, averaged across its qualified picks and weighted by how much it put on each. Buys only — selling out later does not change it. 88c beside a 90% win rate is a record built on heavy favourites.
ROI per pickThe mean return on one pick, held to resolution, with every pick counted the same regardless of size. That equal weighting is the point: it is what tells a record earned across many picks apart from one carried by a few large ones.
Tail ScoreThe number a wallet is ranked by in a category: its edge per pick, shrunk toward zero so that a short lucky run cannot outrank a long record, then graded out of 100 on a ruler that never moves. No edge at all grades 50, and a grade screenshotted today still means the same thing in six months. The scale itself is published with the figures it grades; this page holds no copy of it.
0xd2a2…004ain Champions League11350.4%57 W · 56 L+0.20.0050c+3.7%50

These 7 columns describe every qualified pick this wallet holds in Champions League and say nothing about the market above. vs expected is the number of wins over what the prices it paid already implied, which is what separates a forecaster from somebody who bought favourites.

From here

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.