Parlays · one parlay
Wallet 0xe036…511a’s 2-leg parlay came in.
A parlay pays a dollar a share only if every leg wins.
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0xe0365eb2c28789e787b2a4c993ff845c49f0511a/p/0x031e6387a4500efd47ff9b4c46d8dfd8a30000000000000000000000000000
Rebuilt .
What this wallet bought, and what happened
- Ticket
- 2 legs at 33cevery leg came in — the ticket paid a dollar a share
- Settled
- Aug 22, 2026, EDTwhen the redemption was paid · US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Position
- 915.87 shares$305 staked on the ticket
- P/L held to resolution
- +$610.87+200.3% on this parlay, not cash withdrawn
The price is the price of the whole ticket, the market maker’s margin included — a parlay is quoted by a professional rather than traded against other wallets on an order book, and there is no published price for a single leg anywhere.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
The 2 legs, and which of them came in
| Leg | Market | Needed | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs BET-M 33 (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games European Qualifier Group Stage | 1WIN | Came in |
| 2 | Counter-Strike: Noir Verse vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs | Noir Verse | Came in |
These legs were read off the Polygon blockchain, where Polymarket records what a parlay is made of, and each one names its market by its identifier. They were not matched from the ticket’s wording — one wrong match on one leg would silently reverse the verdict above.
One ticket is not a record. Here is this wallet’s whole Parlays record.
What these columns mean
- Qualified picks
- Every Pick this wallet made in this category that is large enough to be a real opinion and cheap enough that a follower could still have realised the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
- Win rate
- The share of this wallet's qualified picks whose outcome won, with the wins and the losses beside it — 62% of eleven and 62% of eleven hundred are not the same claim. Held to resolution: a pick is graded on the market's winning outcome whether or not the wallet sold beforehand. No board is ranked by this: favourites win often.
- vs expected
- Wins, minus the wins the entry prices already implied. Counted in wins: +8 means eight more than the prices this wallet paid were pricing in. It is the number that separates a forecaster from somebody who bought favourites.
- Realizable edge
- Per qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, once the worse entry price a follower gets is charged against it. The raw edge is what the wallet got; this is what copying it would have got. Edge that vanishes at two cents of slippage was never sellable.
- Avg entry
- The price this wallet paid, in cents, averaged across its qualified picks and weighted by how much it put on each. Buys only — selling out later does not change it. 88c beside a 90% win rate is a record built on heavy favourites.
- ROI per pick
- The mean return on one pick, held to resolution, with every pick counted the same regardless of size. That equal weighting is the point: it is what tells a record earned across many picks apart from one carried by a few large ones.
- Tail Score
- The number a wallet is ranked by in a category: its edge per pick, shrunk toward zero so that a short lucky run cannot outrank a long record, then graded out of 100 on a ruler that never moves. No edge at all grades 50, and a grade screenshotted today still means the same thing in six months. The scale itself is published with the figures it grades; this page holds no copy of it.
| Wallet | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xe036…511ain Parlays | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | +4.9 | +0.06 | 33c | +21.4% | 55 |
These 7 columns describe every qualified parlay this wallet holds and say nothing about the ticket above. Most of this board sits below 50, and that is the normal case: a parlay is quoted by a market maker who keeps a spread, so across the whole board the average ticket was bought at 27.8c and won 19.6% of the time.
Where to go from here
- 0xe036…511a’s whole record — every category it is scored in, not just this one.
- The Parlays leaderboard — who actually makes money on these, and how few do.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.