TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs BET-M 33 (BO3) - Moscow Cyber Games European Qualifier Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
1WINof 1WIN, BET-M 33
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$72,457
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$89,139

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,457 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5135…7217backed BET-M 3332c4,647$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500.221,65252.9%874 W · 778 L+60.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed BET-M 3331c2,500$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.681,42333.6%478 W · 945 L+41.8wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed BET-M 3331c2,500$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774.9859841.3%247 W · 351 L-20.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked 1WIN54c2,499$1,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,139.3132348.9%158 W · 165 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ebc…a33dbacked 1WIN52c1,926$997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$928.763457.1%362 W · 272 L+40.6wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb17…c84bbacked 1WIN69c1,817$1,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.912259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+39.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f0b…eb6dbacked 1WIN69c1,500$1,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.9916343.6%71 W · 92 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked BET-M 3332c1,175$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.465,09555.1%2,805 W · 2,290 L+119.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x63ef…7d38backed 1WIN67c1,148$773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.733154.8%17 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed BET-M 3355c1,042$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.182,52743.1%1,088 W · 1,439 L+42.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x051c…ca3fbacked BET-M 3331c1,000$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31036847.6%175 W · 193 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked BET-M 3323c869.79$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.0830726.4%81 W · 226 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed BET-M 3331c806.45$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2505,87637.7%2,213 W · 3,663 L+71.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf397…f3c8backed 1WIN69c726.01$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.013158.1%18 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9267…869ebacked 1WIN68c700$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2243652.8%19 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb18c…694fbacked 1WIN67c680$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.43256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed 1WIN48c648.13$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.56,50142.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L-79.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe453…256ebacked 1WIN66c618.56$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.562142.9%9 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-31.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked 1WIN62c608.37$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.793,54429.3%1,037 W · 2,507 L-289.1wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb40e…7787backed 1WIN69c600$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18620842.8%89 W · 119 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x274f…971abacked 1WIN69c580.29$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.294440.9%18 W · 26 L-6.2wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-33.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x052c…6762backed 1WIN67c577.66$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.63922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.8wins-0.31per pick54cpaid-66.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed BET-M 3345c574.92$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.6589630.7%275 W · 621 L-64.4wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x443c…d83abacked 1WIN70c520.49$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.317055.3%94 W · 76 L+11.3wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed BET-M 3367c490.33$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.792,36545.4%1,074 W · 1,291 L-58.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e1d…cecdbacked 1WIN68c472.27$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.022948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd747…076cbacked 1WIN66c461.86$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.863948.7%19 W · 20 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ac4…1a34backed BET-M 3352c423.52$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.411216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf404…daaabacked BET-M 3330c417.51$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.0810933%36 W · 73 L-9.9wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-26.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed 1WIN68c410.07$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.1656239.5%222 W · 340 L-21.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f41…260ebacked BET-M 3329c399.99$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11618350.8%93 W · 90 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked 1WIN47c384.77$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.153,23651.2%1,657 W · 1,579 L+88.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked 1WIN67c374.08$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.243,26745.5%1,485 W · 1,782 L-85.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed 1WIN63c364.5$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.621,59429.7%473 W · 1,121 L-88.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfabe…f1c9backed 1WIN66c329.98$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.192161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked 1WIN40c310.56$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.862,22347.5%1,056 W · 1,167 L-5.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked 1WIN69c290.99$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.4876933.8%260 W · 509 L-48.3wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-30.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed 1WIN45c280.01$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.44,23849.2%2,085 W · 2,153 L+60.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa005…abb1backed BET-M 3332c275.43$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.1319150.3%96 W · 95 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6983…88c3backed 1WIN67c258.99$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.4714942.3%63 W · 86 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked BET-M 3334c251$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3315732.5%51 W · 106 L-11.8wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked BET-M 3356c246.04$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.6811040.9%45 W · 65 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed BET-M 3332c219.97$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.392,03053.7%1,091 W · 939 L+6.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed BET-M 3332c219.97$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.3947655%262 W · 214 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf01b…b282backed 1WIN66c216.99$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.6837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xba8e…8e0dbacked 1WIN35c204.64$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.450458.5%295 W · 209 L-1.5wins0.00per pick59cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c6d…ab76backed BET-M 3332c203$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.6334750.1%174 W · 173 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97f2…d56fbacked BET-M 3333c199.99$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664264.3%27 W · 15 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+22.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x54ac…47e6backed 1WIN51c191.22$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.2668172.2%492 W · 189 L+120.9wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+24.7%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x3e69…7a30backed 1WIN71c168.34$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.821573.3%11 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick75cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb595…5922backed 1WIN58c158.36$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.7320653.9%111 W · 95 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed 1WIN65c152.02$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.635,34131.3%1,674 W · 3,667 L-390.7wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe033…7ea5backed 1WIN55c151.51$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.56650%3 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x189d…5561backed 1WIN66c151.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.062231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-44.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x20d7…2485backed BET-M 3335c150.86$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.177915.2%12 W · 67 L-8.9wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-56.5%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x8213…711cbacked BET-M 3341c150$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625865.5%38 W · 20 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c3f…e6a2backed BET-M 3339c148.33$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.46747.8%32 W · 35 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked 1WIN64c145$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.152,19543.1%946 W · 1,249 L-68.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x249f…fed3backed 1WIN68c144.25$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.674971.4%35 W · 14 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+14.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5317…9a3bbacked BET-M 3326c143.55$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.622259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5275…9379backed BET-M 3336c140$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.076749.3%33 W · 34 L+6.7wins+0.10per pick39cpaid+34.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaf76…ffeabacked BET-M 3336c132$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7923037.8%87 W · 143 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9307…9da3backed 1WIN45c130.95$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.441,00869.3%699 W · 309 L+152.8wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+18.3%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xece0…7dc9backed BET-M 3336c125$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455848.3%28 W · 30 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0868…efe8backed BET-M 3338c125$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.998038.8%31 W · 49 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f38…13c8backed 1WIN68c120.3$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.310355.3%57 W · 46 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed BET-M 3335c113.81$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.282,64551.9%1,372 W · 1,273 L+21.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed 1WIN53c107.67$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.0637848.1%182 W · 196 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9688…fd45backed 1WIN50c107$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.6149843%214 W · 284 L-16.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x604e…2cb1backed BET-M 3328c100.45$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.134822.9%11 W · 37 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick23cpaid+30.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe962…7a52backed BET-M 3329c99.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296943.5%30 W · 39 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7129…4517backed BET-M 3330c99.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,08737.5%408 W · 679 L+33.8wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked BET-M 3339c91.89$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4423847.9%114 W · 124 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked 1WIN66c90$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.4592145.8%422 W · 499 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1612…9dedbacked BET-M 3333c88.05$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0626550.6%134 W · 131 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x299f…2c50backed BET-M 3337c82.92$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4674239.1%290 W · 452 L-29.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed 1WIN62c80.62$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.644,09951%2,091 W · 2,008 L+74.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69ae…b263backed 1WIN64c78.2$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.22564%16 W · 9 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+21.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x420b…965bbacked 1WIN67c69.99$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.158254.3%316 W · 266 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked 1WIN57c65.22$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.315,03437.2%1,874 W · 3,160 L-260.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x69fa…e259backed 1WIN67c60.57$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8361754%333 W · 284 L+11.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked BET-M 3346c60.46$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.82,14347.3%1,013 W · 1,130 L-61.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked BET-M 3336c60.42$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.611421.1%24 W · 90 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x613a…2185backed 1WIN63c59$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.832544%11 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f98…cb91backed BET-M 3340c59$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.47042.9%30 W · 40 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed 1WIN57c56.51$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.42,55441.3%1,054 W · 1,500 L-116.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0190…279fbacked 1WIN69c55.7$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.056246.8%29 W · 33 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fa2…6df9backed 1WIN69c53.87$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8716245.7%74 W · 88 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed BET-M 3343c50.63$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.542,47424.7%611 W · 1,863 L-316.9wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-51.6%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x4572…47e7backed BET-M 3331c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.545745.1%206 W · 251 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbc6…9092backed BET-M 3320c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103729.7%11 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x042d…0b81backed 1WIN72c48.25$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5111060%66 W · 44 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x912f…b25bbacked BET-M 3322c47.05$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.358333.7%28 W · 55 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-22%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d8…9ccdbacked 1WIN69c43.34$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.484557.8%26 W · 19 L+5.0wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+23.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed BET-M 3360c42$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.362,39346.7%1,118 W · 1,275 L-53.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29fa…0eeebacked 1WIN68c40.93$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.933435.3%12 W · 22 L-6.2wins-0.18per pick53cpaid-42.9%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xe6cd…e027backed 1WIN44c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.448943.6%213 W · 276 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed BET-M 3330c39.53$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.834626.9%93 W · 253 L-13.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-25.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a9c…fd70backed 1WIN68c32.35$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.353040%12 W · 18 L-4.3wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-30.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbf39…3394backed 1WIN80c30.08$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.022100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.