Ligue 1 · one pick
Wallet 0xf021…df56 got this wrong.
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0xf02105d60083d7d74d7e0f9785d79e06137cdf56/m/0xa136284e1a7d4c0133e6c1eefbe750fa038306324a86ce8522db2d35f5aabf3b
Rebuilt .
What this wallet called, and what happened
- Backed
- Underat 10c — the average price it paid on that side
- What happened
- Over won · US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Position
- 2,896 shares$289 spent on the side it backed
- P/L held to resolution
- -$289.33-100% on this pick, not cash withdrawn
TailMyPicks grades a pick on the market’s winning outcome whether or not the wallet sold beforehand — buying the winner at 40c and selling at 80c is still a correct forecast. Backed is the side left once opposing buys cancel each other share for share, so a fully hedged market yields no pick at all.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
One call is not a record. Here is this wallet’s whole Ligue 1 record.
| Wallet | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xf021…df56in Ligue 1 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -49%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
These 7 columns describe every qualified pick this wallet holds in Ligue 1 and say nothing about the market above. vs expected is the number of wins over what the prices it paid already implied, which is what separates a forecaster from somebody who bought favourites.
From here
- This wallet’s whole record, category by categoryEvery category it is scored in, with the ones below 50 counted as loudly as the ones above.
- Everyone who was on this market115 wallets hold a qualified pick here, largest position first, each with its Ligue 1 record.
- Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)The venue’s own page for the question. TailMyPicks never calls Polymarket while rendering — this is a link you follow, not a request this page makes.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.