Australian A League · one pick
Wallet 0xffc9…bf01 got this right.
Melbourne Victory FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0xffc9fd92f6e23adaa6ffb1a991427536feb6bf01/m/0xbdb4c2a4d271997bef01f0a4cfdbf1e1fca448aa0b5fb00a289fc1f31bb9e86b
Rebuilt .
What this wallet called, and what happened
- Backed
- Underat 62c — the average price it paid on that side
- What happened
- Under won · US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Position
- 19.04 shares$12 spent on the side it backed
- P/L held to resolution
- +$7.2+60.9% on this pick, not cash withdrawn
TailMyPicks grades a pick on the market’s winning outcome whether or not the wallet sold beforehand — buying the winner at 40c and selling at 80c is still a correct forecast. Backed is the side left once opposing buys cancel each other share for share, so a fully hedged market yields no pick at all.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
One call is not a record. Here is this wallet’s whole Australian A League record.
| Wallet | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xffc9…bf01in Australian A League | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
These 7 columns describe every qualified pick this wallet holds in Australian A League and say nothing about the market above. vs expected is the number of wins over what the prices it paid already implied, which is what separates a forecaster from somebody who bought favourites.
From here
- This wallet’s whole record, category by categoryEvery category it is scored in, with the ones below 50 counted as loudly as the ones above.
- Everyone who was on this market29 wallets hold a qualified pick here, largest position first, each with its Australian A League record.
- Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)The venue’s own page for the question. TailMyPicks never calls Polymarket while rendering — this is a link you follow, not a request this page makes.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.