Australian A League · resolved market
Melbourne Victory FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdb4c2a4d271997bef01f0a4cfdbf1e1fca448aa0b5fb00a289fc1f31bb9e86b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,020
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,080
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,020 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked Under | 64c | 1,112$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.31 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 11c | 999.59$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.04 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0146…5ddebacked Over | 38c | 979.59$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.25 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 923.71$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.69 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 27c | 620$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.76 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe02…1204backed Over | 36c | 555.56$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 75c | 448.61$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.05 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 61c | 354.55$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.27 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 63c | 291$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.67 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…2935backed Under | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +6.7wins | +0.24per pick | 55cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1af3…fbe3backed Over | 38c | 128$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 37c | 122.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.31 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 67c | 111$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 151 | 40.4%61 W · 90 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 64c | 102.04$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.73 | 149 | 55.7%83 W · 66 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…e84dbacked Over | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 61c | 94.04$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 39c | 82.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5451…1acbbacked Over | 27c | 81.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 37c | 78.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 36c | 56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 62c | 54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f0…0114backed Under | 70c | 38.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -6.3wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9e35…3655backed Over | 39c | 37.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 73c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Under | 62c | 19.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Sydney FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-1.5)Sydney FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.