Australian A League · resolved market
Melbourne Victory FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9ea69bfc7106a8d071533a00015dfdca957ced9027e879360e1972ae93f4ddc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,466
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 30c | 1,691$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 59c | 1,229$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.83 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 72c | 1,168$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.44 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…22d0backed Under | 40c | 999.23$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 48c | 825.35$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 55c | 755.6$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.83 | 151 | 40.4%61 W · 90 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 62c | 698.65$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.91 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf070…57b8backed Over | 44c | 683.52$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +206.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 32c | 609.98$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.99 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 73c | 607$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.91 | 149 | 51%76 W · 73 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…9749backed Over | 61c | 491.8$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked Under | 41c | 444.95$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.52 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 42c | 401$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.63 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 60c | 383.49$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.36 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaac8…b6f1backed Over | 59c | 372.88$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…3e5cbacked Under | 49c | 308.9$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +132.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 54c | 293.39$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.17 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Under | 43c | 255.97$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.02 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc37…bac6backed Over | 47c | 249.99$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Under | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad9…4859backed Over | 49c | 240.36$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc26c…b7cabacked Under | 11c | 234.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +197.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 71c | 230.49$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.31 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 67c | 208.52$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.81 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.81 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 59c | 184.33$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.75 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…a5e9backed Over | 58c | 173.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbb…48f2backed Over | 60c | 170$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 35c | 140$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.85 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 60c | 119.25$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.17 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 70c | 105$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f11…4529backed Over | 39c | 102.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 59c | 101.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.01 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 42c | 101.01$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.59 | 149 | 55.7%83 W · 66 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 37c | 100.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…e84dbacked Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88a2…68a0backed Over | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0f…e047backed Over | 25c | 99.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e35…3655backed Over | 11c | 91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1744…b131backed Over | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 39c | 78.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.64 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6b…68a0backed Over | 26c | 73.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…ba56backed Over | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 63cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde28…8d20backed Over | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 30c | 66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 168 | 65.5%110 W · 58 L | +22.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0dca…a234backed Over | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 39c | 58.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 110 | 57.3%63 W · 47 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Over | 59c | 48.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Under | 41c | 48.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 75c | 47.88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 42c | 38.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Over | 60c | 34.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 40c | 34.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb188…8be3backed Over | 60c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904c…4172backed Under | 74c | 30.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed Under | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 59c | 24.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa738…ddedbacked Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Sydney FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-1.5)Sydney FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.