Australian A League · resolved market
Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x951d1869b07113e024b0782380452363ef3bb62cfc5a3dffb4307ce45e98a6f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sydney FCof Melbourne Victory FC, Sydney FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,047
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,830
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,047 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x94d4…d869backed Melbourne Victory FC | 28c | 3,550$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Melbourne Victory FC | 28c | 1,500$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Sydney FC | 72c | 1,500$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Sydney FC | 72c | 1,441$1,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.84 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…9ff1backed Sydney FC | 76c | 1,111$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.63 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Melbourne Victory FC | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde1d…c645backed Melbourne Victory FC | 30c | 841.11$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Melbourne Victory FC | 30c | 661.48$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Melbourne Victory FC | 21c | 653.65$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.27 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Melbourne Victory FC | 21c | 595$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.95 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Sydney FC | 74c | 556.48$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.8 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Sydney FC | 73c | 480$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.6 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked Sydney FC | 70c | 451.92$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.57 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Melbourne Victory FC | 20c | 425.47$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.09 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Sydney FC | 71c | 397.63$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.4 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Sydney FC | 69c | 385.48$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.5 | 149 | 51%76 W · 73 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Melbourne Victory FC | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0dc…0030backed Melbourne Victory FC | 27c | 312.26$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe11…18cfbacked Melbourne Victory FC | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e05…2ebcbacked Melbourne Victory FC | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47fb…0c7bbacked Melbourne Victory FC | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Sydney FC | 71c | 264$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.56 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…485bbacked Sydney FC | 75c | 262.97$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Melbourne Victory FC | 28c | 243.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.91 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Sydney FC | 71c | 201.8$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.39 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6672…9ea3backed Melbourne Victory FC | 27c | 183.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65a0…2a86backed Sydney FC | 78c | 128.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Sydney FC | 72c | 117.14$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +6.4wins | +0.54per pick | 21cpaid | +326.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Melbourne Victory FC | 24c | 115.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5660…27e6backed Melbourne Victory FC | 26c | 110.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Sydney FC | 73c | 109.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Melbourne Victory FC | 21c | 103.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8acc…cc29backed Sydney FC | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Melbourne Victory FC | 24c | 74.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Sydney FC | 73c | 73$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Melbourne Victory FC | 24c | 68.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcb…207cbacked Melbourne Victory FC | 24c | 67.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9531…18ffbacked Melbourne Victory FC | 31c | 64.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f6…eae4backed Sydney FC | 76c | 64.47$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Sydney FC | 73c | 50.6$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a4…28bbbacked Melbourne Victory FC | 28c | 40.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…7f72backed Sydney FC | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Melbourne Victory FC | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Sydney FC | 75c | 35.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d3…aafbbacked Sydney FC | 77c | 28.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Sydney FC | 72c | 27.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904c…4172backed Sydney FC | 75c | 25.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Sydney FC | 71c | 19.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Sydney FC | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Sydney FC | 71c | 14.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Melbourne Victory FC (-1.5)this page
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Sydney FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Melbourne Victory FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.