Mls · resolved market
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2025-10-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x003561a5a609452fd4b66896590dbdb041d1f8601eccab291d33d605236a19c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,824
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,523
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,824 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 61c | 4,670$2,829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,828.6 | 257 | 61.5%158 W · 99 L | +17.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 36c | 4,444$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,844.44 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 52c | 2,663$1,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,290.52 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked No | 61c | 1,841$1,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,122.81 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 38c | 972$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.86 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 63c | 625.02$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.88 | 132 | 57.6%76 W · 56 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked No | 64c | 600$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 38c | 390.08$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.08 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 36c | 306$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.69 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed No | 64c | 300$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Yes | 36c | 272.11$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.15 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked No | 64c | 262.67$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.11 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 35c | 206.65$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.16 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed No | 63c | 200$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked No | 64c | 150$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6be7…8d02backed Yes | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked No | 63c | 67.84$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9f…f4afbacked Yes | 34c | 59.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Yes | 73c | 54.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x663b…6a3ebacked Yes | 66c | 51.14$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…d217backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf2…76f0backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 61c | 39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcf…7a5bbacked No | 70c | 20.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd1…9f05backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe478…28eabacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Cincinnati win on 2025-10-04?this page
- Will New York Red Bulls vs. FC Cincinnati end in a draw?No won
- Will New York Red Bulls win on 2025-10-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.