College Football · resolved market
Spread: San Jose State (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x009c966ab0e3288e2bd245329ef68a268660f208d390c3faa89fd0aa5b627bec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Jose Stateof San Jose State, Hawaii
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,442
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,442
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,442 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd38b…5029backed San Jose State | 52c | 9,043$4,702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,341.13 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hawaii | 48c | 7,991$3,835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,835.43 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21fd…9b47backed San Jose State | 51c | 1,862$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.38 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19e8…f661backed San Jose State | 51c | 1,678$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.22 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +50%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…2d63backed San Jose State | 51c | 1,573$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.77 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aed…abfebacked Hawaii | 49c | 1,524$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23c6…e285backed Hawaii | 49c | 1,523$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb0…884cbacked San Jose State | 51c | 1,426$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45ef…ee8abacked Hawaii | 49c | 1,366$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.34 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a92…4a9ebacked San Jose State | 51c | 1,285$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.65 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0531…549fbacked Hawaii | 49c | 1,233$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -41%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…4388backed Hawaii | 49c | 1,214$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.86 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…7463backed San Jose State | 51c | 1,154$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.46 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9b…2e9dbacked Hawaii | 49c | 1,121$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.29 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c58…d703backed San Jose State | 51c | 1,014$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.86 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f54…4846backed San Jose State | 51c | 1,012$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.88 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb76…0985backed Hawaii | 49c | 1,011$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.39 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…fdfdbacked Hawaii | 49c | 1,011$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.39 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Hawaii | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3447…9bffbacked San Jose State | 51c | 961$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.89 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f72…8fe7backed Hawaii | 49c | 956$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.44 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…2cb3backed Hawaii | 49c | 851$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31dd…a42bbacked Hawaii | 49c | 821$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.29 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86ac…29cfbacked San Jose State | 51c | 763$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.87 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8af…fd2fbacked San Jose State | 51c | 745$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.05 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18f9…d815backed Hawaii | 49c | 685$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.65 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66bf…ed34backed Hawaii | 49c | 678$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc010…3d6ebacked San Jose State | 51c | 521$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.29 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked San Jose State | 53c | 135.64$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 268 | 46.3%124 W · 144 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Hawaii | 47c | 135.64$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.75 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Hawaii | 49c | 103$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.47 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed San Jose State | 51c | 27.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Jose State (-1.5)this page
- Hawaii vs. San Jose StateSan Jose State won
- Hawaii vs. San Jose State: O/U 55.5Over won
- Hawaii vs. San Jose State: O/U 56.5Over won
- Hawaii vs. San Jose State: O/U 58.5Over won
- O/U 57.5Over won
- Spread: San Jose State (-2.5)San Jose State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.