Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Fonseca vs Tabilo
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00b7099b7d3f5add0a8dc6b5d02b00f4eabdd723e98d4c66185e9383b662e9bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tabiloof Fonseca, Tabilo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,990
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Tabilo | 62c | 1,033$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.47 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bac…8769backed Fonseca | 60c | 392.18$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.56 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Fonseca | 17c | 283.02$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 678 | 36%244 W · 434 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca4a…338abacked Fonseca | 21c | 193.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 136 | 48.5%66 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…8a86backed Fonseca | 42c | 188.64$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Tabilo | 44c | 112$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.72 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +8.8wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x84f0…327cbacked Fonseca | 55c | 78$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…db26backed Fonseca | 61c | 73.26$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.47 | 825 | 60.5%499 W · 326 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Fonseca | 31c | 71.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 813 | 49.1%399 W · 414 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed Tabilo | 44c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f97…a9b3backed Fonseca | 37c | 53.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 262 | 27.9%73 W · 189 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Tabilo | 39c | 39.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x321d…7d0bbacked Tabilo | 45c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4e…9b6fbacked Fonseca | 56c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ae…89d9backed Tabilo | 45c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +35%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x859a…1ccebacked Fonseca | 56c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29ab…b38dbacked Fonseca | 56c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43e6…ac47backed Tabilo | 45c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2134…e45abacked Fonseca | 55c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 61cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c64…cb26backed Fonseca | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584d…d358backed Fonseca | 60c | 22.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 341 | 59.5%203 W · 138 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x226a…6e99backed Fonseca | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…753bbacked Fonseca | 55c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Fonseca vs Tabilothis page
- Argentina Open: Joao Fonseca vs Alejandro TabiloTabilo won
- Fonseca vs. Tabilo: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Fonseca vs. Tabilo: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Fonseca vs. Tabilo: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Tabilo (+1.5)Tabilo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.