Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Fonseca vs Jodar
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00c34aa5dc9419c881ad19605d8a2ab68e9429915276af94f0e16b39693f76bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jodarof Fonseca, Jodar
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,260
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,359
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,260 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f7b…7f37backed Fonseca | 64c | 9,643$6,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,145.24 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Jodar | 48c | 2,500$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300 | 692 | 44.4%307 W · 385 L | +29.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Jodar | 52c | 1,707$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.25 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…d922backed Jodar | 6c | 1,310$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,237.14 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | +80.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Jodar | 37c | 834.06$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.46 | 653 | 46.4%303 W · 350 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Jodar | 30c | 734.41$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.59 | 174 | 36.8%64 W · 110 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Jodar | 50c | 724.06$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.03 | 7,968 | 50.7%4,038 W · 3,930 L | +92.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d87…abeabacked Jodar | 56c | 642.14$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.68 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Jodar | 50c | 485$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.5 | 6,512 | 54.5%3,546 W · 2,966 L | +289.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Jodar | 52c | 435$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.97 | 4,650 | 48.2%2,242 W · 2,408 L | +31.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Jodar | 52c | 375.57$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.61 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5462…fe43backed Fonseca | 52c | 332.21$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.87 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Jodar | 52c | 332$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.61 | 7,183 | 49.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L | +112.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Fonseca | 22c | 310.68$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.29 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -13.7wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Jodar | 49c | 301.24$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.34 | 9,374 | 44.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L | -244.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Jodar | 25c | 298$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.42 | 290 | 39.3%114 W · 176 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Jodar | 29c | 273$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.67 | 694 | 38%264 W · 430 L | +21.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Jodar | 47c | 266$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.98 | 4,975 | 38.6%1,922 W · 3,053 L | -19.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…780dbacked Jodar | 29c | 250$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.7 | 181 | 32.6%59 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Fonseca | 45c | 250$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb3…8e52backed Fonseca | 27c | 177.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…2b70backed Jodar | 31c | 150$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 399 | 41.9%167 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…8666backed Jodar | 35c | 144$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.96 | 246 | 32.9%81 W · 165 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Jodar | 22c | 125$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Jodar | 29c | 125$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.35 | 257 | 37%95 W · 162 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…cf8abacked Jodar | 22c | 125$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 78 | 28.2%22 W · 56 L | +11.6wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…d735backed Jodar | 21c | 118$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +4.2wins | +0.52per pick | 23cpaid | +259.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed Jodar | 37c | 110.87$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.1 | 452 | 35.8%162 W · 290 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Fonseca | 23c | 103.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 3,457 | 38.9%1,345 W · 2,112 L | -15.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Jodar | 31c | 99.86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.49 | 482 | 35.9%173 W · 309 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Jodar | 50c | 97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 1,456 | 45.1%656 W · 800 L | +42.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbaa…59b8backed Jodar | 55c | 88.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 325 | 48%156 W · 169 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Fonseca | 23c | 82.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 3,262 | 40.3%1,314 W · 1,948 L | +22.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca29…a1d0backed Fonseca | 52c | 82.04$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.73 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd205…e7fbbacked Jodar | 47c | 76.82$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.71 | 310 | 39.4%122 W · 188 L | -10.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Jodar | 48c | 57.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 346 | 48.3%167 W · 179 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…fc8abacked Jodar | 21c | 54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.66 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Fonseca | 45c | 42.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Fonseca | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 287 | 24.4%70 W · 217 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Jodar | 50c | 38.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 512 | 36.5%187 W · 325 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9531…18ffbacked Jodar | 54c | 35.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 116 | 41.4%48 W · 68 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x595c…3b03backed Jodar | 51c | 23.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7061…b4aebacked Jodar | 56c | 20.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa888…e98cbacked Jodar | 57c | 19.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 164 | 59.1%97 W · 67 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2db3…667abacked Fonseca | 60c | 17.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Fonseca vs Jodarthis page
- Fonseca vs. Jodar: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Fonseca vs. Jodar: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Fonseca vs. Jodar: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Fonseca vs. Jodar: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Joao Fonseca vs. Rafael Jodar: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Madrid Open: Joao Fonseca vs Rafael JodarRafael Jodar won
- Set Handicap: Jodar (-1.5) vs Fonseca (+1.5)Fonseca won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.