Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Sacramento State Hornets vs. Montana Grizzlies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00e852f431ee3c5f36f399f75b28de7ddeabf6f25489b69ab04e97edc6c8e16b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Montana Grizzliesof Sacramento State Hornets, Montana Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,080
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,722
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,080 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Sacramento State Hornets | 2c | 941.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…737ebacked Montana Grizzlies | 77c | 477.97$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.25 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Sacramento State Hornets | 24c | 298.26$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.58 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Sacramento State Hornets | 24c | 283.16$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.15 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Montana Grizzlies | 80c | 235.37$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.93 | 771 | 42.3%326 W · 445 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Montana Grizzlies | 76c | 221.6$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.39 | 1,511 | 47.8%722 W · 789 L | -35.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed Sacramento State Hornets | 24c | 201.9$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 932 | 47.3%441 W · 491 L | -22.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Sacramento State Hornets | 24c | 199.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,317 | 33.6%443 W · 874 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Montana Grizzlies | 76c | 198.72$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.69 | 1,058 | 55.8%590 W · 468 L | +34.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Sacramento State Hornets | 23c | 178.47$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.05 | 1,446 | 43.4%627 W · 819 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Sacramento State Hornets | 16c | 175.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Sacramento State Hornets | 22c | 169.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 555 | 32.8%182 W · 373 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Sacramento State Hornets | 24c | 82.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 316 | 47.8%151 W · 165 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Montana Grizzlies | 76c | 65.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe496…4d8bbacked Sacramento State Hornets | 23c | 64.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 179 | 45.8%82 W · 97 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Montana Grizzlies | 74c | 23.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…2e74backed Montana Grizzlies | 75c | 15.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 198 | 60.1%119 W · 79 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.