Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Two Move (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europe Open Qualifier Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00f12f616296300a867b5ca830ae05e8129236dd33cf7a2782c00ac5e44c2ecb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Two Moveof Yellow Submarine, Two Move
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,865
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,865 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x196b…4151backed Yellow Submarine | 1c | 2,250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 0%0 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed Yellow Submarine | 1c | 2,250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Yellow Submarine | 1c | 2,250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 104 | 0%0 W · 104 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd3…6c9abacked Two Move | 32c | 1,851$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,251.42 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…cd14backed Yellow Submarine | 1c | 1,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Yellow Submarine | 1c | 1,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 17.2%21 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yellow Submarine | 20c | 1,020$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab12…764ebacked Yellow Submarine | 66c | 760$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.6 | 270 | 60%162 W · 108 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…7401backed Yellow Submarine | 5c | 750$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 354 | 30.5%108 W · 246 L | -27.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Yellow Submarine | 5c | 750$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Yellow Submarine | 5c | 750$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…795abacked Yellow Submarine | 5c | 549$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 283 | 36.4%103 W · 180 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8248…c0b2backed Yellow Submarine | 73c | 500$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd592…9618backed Two Move | 17c | 491.53$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.53 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | -9.3wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc52…dfcebacked Two Move | 36c | 419.99$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.79 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Two Move | 36c | 350.16$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.16 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d3…b8debacked Yellow Submarine | 67c | 345.7$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.94 | 700 | 52.3%366 W · 334 L | +47.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…e27dbacked Yellow Submarine | 73c | 300$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Two Move | 38c | 298.59$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.2 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yellow Submarine | 69c | 292.56$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.83 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x589a…8dc5backed Yellow Submarine | 68c | 248.6$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.05 | 204 | 42.2%86 W · 118 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57f…0c96backed Two Move | 27c | 214.52$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.6 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked Two Move | 27c | 207.41$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.41 | 268 | 43.7%117 W · 151 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Two Move | 24c | 161.67$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.63 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…744fbacked Yellow Submarine | 75c | 160$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28f5…2035backed Yellow Submarine | 70c | 156.67$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.67 | 332 | 65.4%217 W · 115 L | +23.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8232…d12fbacked Yellow Submarine | 76c | 130.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 280 | 62.9%176 W · 104 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Two Move | 34c | 116.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.69 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Two Move | 25c | 116$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 404 | 42.3%171 W · 233 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88db…54a4backed Yellow Submarine | 68c | 104.41$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4994…3e36backed Two Move | 31c | 103.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.24 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +19.9wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked Yellow Submarine | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 170 | 54.7%93 W · 77 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Two Move | 33c | 75.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.81 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Two Move | 22c | 73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.17 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…f849backed Two Move | 19c | 70.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.06 | 291 | 43.6%127 W · 164 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf032…fd7ebacked Yellow Submarine | 35c | 65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5539…19f8backed Two Move | 18c | 64.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.05 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Two Move | 18c | 62.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yellow Submarine | 72c | 50.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Two Move | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb829…4f5ebacked Yellow Submarine | 61c | 36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 176 | 36.9%65 W · 111 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0580…f78bbacked Yellow Submarine | 61c | 36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 131 | 29.8%39 W · 92 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…b652backed Yellow Submarine | 57c | 31.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 225 | 52.4%118 W · 107 L | +26.0wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…50d7backed Yellow Submarine | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…bc7bbacked Yellow Submarine | 67c | 30.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Yellow Submarine | 64c | 29.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5401…c03dbacked Yellow Submarine | 69c | 28.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yellow Submarine | 64c | 22.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 328 | 6.4%21 W · 307 L | -102.4wins | -0.31per pick | 38cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 18-0.29 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Yellow Submarine | 61c | 21.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed Yellow Submarine | 61c | 21.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Two Move (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europe Open Qualifier Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Two Move - Game 1 WinnerYellow Submarine won
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Two Move - Game 2 WinnerTwo Move won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.