Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00f85da1cc4e15ee24c72fadc04286396cb1fdf6e5bf7153a1d5d01cb604de1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mannarinoof Shelton, Mannarino
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,964
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,964 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4173…d3edbacked Mannarino | 46c | 1,081$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.97 | 556 | 46.4%258 W · 298 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Shelton | 56c | 782.51$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.38 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Mannarino | 44c | 454.91$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.91 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b03…71babacked Shelton | 77c | 317.66$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.89 | 285 | 52.3%149 W · 136 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Shelton | 60c | 200.26$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 415 | 44.3%184 W · 231 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00f8…2c23backed Shelton | 16c | 190.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Shelton | 64c | 187.63$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bf…b02dbacked Shelton | 62c | 165$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.3 | 591 | 65.3%386 W · 205 L | -16.9wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Shelton | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 233 | 53.2%124 W · 109 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Mannarino | 38c | 160$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.2 | 328 | 42.7%140 W · 188 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a52…06cbbacked Shelton | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 170 | 56.5%96 W · 74 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Mannarino | 46c | 149.96$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.24 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5d…526fbacked Shelton | 58c | 110$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Mannarino | 42c | 72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Shelton | 56c | 70.16$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Mannarino | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 283 | 22.3%63 W · 220 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe16c…9d62backed Shelton | 77c | 65.7$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.59 | 352 | 48.6%171 W · 181 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Shelton | 23c | 65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Shelton | 61c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…969bbacked Mannarino | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 124 | 39.5%49 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x500c…883cbacked Shelton | 62c | 56.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Mannarino | 39c | 56.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x892b…b4fabacked Shelton | 27c | 37.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Mannarino | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 220 | 39.1%86 W · 134 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf3…8f91backed Shelton | 69c | 25.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5)this page
- Dallas Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Ben SheltonShelton won
- Mannarino vs. Shelton: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Mannarino vs. Shelton: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Mannarino vs. Shelton: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Mannarino vs SheltonShelton won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.