Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hertha BSC vs. VfL Bochum end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00fa165635304bf756f24f10e31450187c9c7c4e302c8830333e2325577d3392
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,739
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,739 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 22c | 1,250$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 34c | 580.36$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.17 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 20c | 564$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.3 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 73c | 542.61$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.12 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 80c | 530.07$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.01 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Yes | 27c | 450$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.5 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 26c | 446.85$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.65 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…8132backed No | 16c | 379.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.79 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.28per pick | 14cpaid | +188.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x744e…3224backed No | 16c | 299.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +3.9wins | +0.28per pick | 15cpaid | +183.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x74bb…1759backed Yes | 23c | 299$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.23 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa707…1d2bbacked No | 76c | 296.05$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09bf…70c1backed Yes | 24c | 296.05$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 16cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc94c…ba65backed No | 11c | 199.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +118.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 23c | 169.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bde…b181backed Yes | 22c | 143.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.24 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Yes | 27c | 129$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.17 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed No | 73c | 111.52$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.41 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 72c | 111.52$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.29 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Yes | 27c | 108$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.84 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 74c | 79.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.84 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 73c | 74.55$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.08 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 33c | 53.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 73c | 50.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…2c24backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked No | 31c | 33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a6…44edbacked No | 73c | 22.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 72c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked No | 74c | 19.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…b839backed Yes | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hertha BSC vs. VfL Bochum end in a draw?this page
- Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-03-14?No won
- Will VfL Bochum win on 2026-03-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.