Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-03-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50a81258a7eef80e33ed535060ed3c2cfb8af8596ac0ae7baae887725838820f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,511
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,511 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 55c | 3,075$1,705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,369.22 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Yes | 43c | 2,877$1,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,237.19 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 66c | 2,045$1,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,347.62 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 46c | 1,785$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.02 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 58c | 1,394$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.58 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 44c | 1,114$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.31 | 158 | 29.1%46 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9769…7cd7backed Yes | 40c | 1,100$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.04 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked Yes | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 38c | 784.37$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.68 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 56c | 699.99$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…98b4backed Yes | 10c | 679.17$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.63 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 33c | 609.38$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.33 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 56c | 530.21$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.29 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 44c | 454.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 23c | 391.25$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.15 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…22d0backed Yes | 43c | 299.9$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1150…e701backed No | 56c | 266.13$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 45c | 250$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 45c | 250$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Yes | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed No | 36c | 205.67$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.92 | 147 | 34.7%51 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 59c | 203.02$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.51 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4db3…c1eabacked Yes | 50c | 199.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.8 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed No | 55c | 182.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.21 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 30c | 150$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed No | 56c | 148.66$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.41 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 50c | 144.71$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.36 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…2234backed Yes | 52c | 123$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.73 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…04b5backed No | 48c | 120.18$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.54 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 54c | 119.62$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.18 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…8052backed Yes | 44c | 113.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +88.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed No | 26c | 96.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.51 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Yes | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3c…b4f5backed No | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Yes | 45c | 78.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x631c…7bfebacked Yes | 41c | 72.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Yes | 45c | 65.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 65c | 60.01$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x858e…a4abbacked Yes | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Yes | 68c | 55.39$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Yes | 39c | 51.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 205 | 40%82 W · 123 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 29c | 51.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…0ce5backed Yes | 43c | 45.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…e8d5backed No | 24c | 45.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 43c | 44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Yes | 43c | 43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…e944backed No | 24c | 42.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 69c | 40.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 44c | 40.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc733…efe4backed No | 54c | 37.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c87…7f4abacked No | 58c | 36.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a6…44edbacked No | 57c | 35.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9037…0386backed Yes | 45c | 35.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked No | 56c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 121 | 57.9%70 W · 51 L | +8.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x434d…fba4backed Yes | 45c | 31.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…b839backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked No | 59c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 41 | 87.8%36 W · 5 L | +9.1wins | +0.22per pick | 66cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfd51…ce69backed Yes | 51c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3160…e846backed Yes | 44c | 25.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Yes | 44c | 25.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa92b…8cb5backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d2…a1cdbacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-03-14?this page
- Will Hertha BSC vs. VfL Bochum end in a draw?Yes won
- Will VfL Bochum win on 2026-03-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.