Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01174013213fa94b4ade8bc0a389457ba735568cdda0cc47cb771d45d95dd5f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,936
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,936 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 37c | 1,290$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.42 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x695e…7d72backed Yes | 38c | 280$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe826…adb7backed Yes | 59c | 275.26$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.75 | 120 | 32.5%39 W · 81 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 266.31$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.58 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 239.71$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 64c | 150$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 48c | 146.71$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.71 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 63c | 143.9$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.69 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 125$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 43c | 120.97$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.47 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 43c | 106.37$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.73 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes | 35c | 104.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.44 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 66c | 90.01$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.71 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 35c | 79.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 63c | 78.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 48c | 75.13$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.07 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 72.19$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 62c | 71.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.38 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed No | 15c | 70.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 56c | 66.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7993…3b27backed No | 63c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 59.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 41c | 58.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 36c | 56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 29c | 55.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02e9…9a18backed No | 64c | 55.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 45c | 49.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48c0…53d5backed Yes | 40c | 49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 63c | 48.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…ddf5backed Yes | 78c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 57c | 37.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 37.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 48c | 34.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 36c | 33.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 62c | 33.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 33c | 31.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 31.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 64c | 29.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 55c | 27.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 26.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 26.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 67c | 23.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 66c | 23.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd56…45c3backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 51c | 19.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 78c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on July 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on July 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.