Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 60-61°F on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0138ec2758d7765b35a0c9ae07bc162968e1eb961e9240ce902f2d36a8d7b095
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 4c | 540.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19aa…02efbacked Yes | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5364…b4debacked Yes | 35c | 375$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c1…e8b0backed Yes | 21c | 361.1$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.09 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54c4…471cbacked Yes | 33c | 355$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf116…bf57backed Yes | 30c | 325$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…3a54backed No | 67c | 305$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +355.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 11c | 252.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 95 | 23.2%22 W · 73 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x345e…7b41backed Yes | 33c | 245$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…dd1cbacked Yes | 35c | 240$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb3…330fbacked Yes | 30c | 230$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe43…3e68backed Yes | 29c | 230$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbe…9945backed Yes | 29c | 230$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdf…2e1abacked Yes | 30c | 225$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1e…6623backed Yes | 30c | 220$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87e7…8e44backed Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6673…13ccbacked No | 70c | 175$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…b1b4backed No | 65c | 170$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42d5…dc75backed No | 70c | 155$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0641…1985backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 40c | 146.14$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.46 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81d0…2731backed No | 70c | 145$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +86%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef90…da0ebacked No | 71c | 135$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.15 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +116%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb756…8a10backed No | 65c | 135$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2563…f528backed No | 65c | 135$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…c97bbacked No | 65c | 135$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c5…dc8abacked No | 70c | 120$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f3…8ae0backed No | 62c | 110$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd591…7156backed No | 62c | 110$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 32c | 109.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd33…f625backed No | 62c | 105$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 66cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e59…2405backed No | 71c | 105$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedb8…9082backed No | 62c | 105$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf830…d162backed No | 67c | 105$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb11b…c7debacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e87…784fbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3e…d87fbacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7399…8224backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x287d…8410backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf31…b379backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d75…a73abacked No | 70c | 95$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…1bffbacked No | 70c | 95$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b83…970dbacked Yes | 35c | 95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff6…07ddbacked No | 70c | 95$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…6437backed No | 71c | 95$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3b…f573backed Yes | 22c | 87.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b6…5bcebacked Yes | 28c | 81.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb687…26a4backed No | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…a8babacked Yes | 30c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x014e…61aabacked No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 49cpaid | +156.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb780…10b7backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b00…af67backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91dd…e009backed Yes | 30c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba4…d828backed Yes | 40c | 40.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x360a…4f30backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13c7…af26backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2861…b1a7backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7de…b98abacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f4…90f7backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…ce6ebacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 39c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8960…7ffbbacked No | 62c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 66cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc455…3142backed No | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d8…0740backed No | 80c | 32.19$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8e…0824backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa868…58dfbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf9…9b3fbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…6122backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 62cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…892bbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c68…34c6backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb62…cd43backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaae8…ec24backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7220…878cbacked No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5497…05e3backed Yes | 57c | 24.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa30a…548cbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82d9…6dafbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +113%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37c8…d4b3backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…00bfbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb05…8f47backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 60-61°F on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 55°F or below on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 66°F or higher on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 56-57°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 58-59°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 62-63°F on March 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 64-65°F on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.