Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 58-59°F on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4face16923188ce07de959cff2bd1bfb36e4a7ac2d9473fb79a370053538855
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa94e…c540backed No | 76c | 455$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 9c | 318.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 84 | 10.7%9 W · 75 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4742…022dbacked Yes | 24c | 280$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c1…e8b0backed Yes | 21c | 275$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fed…3553backed Yes | 27c | 265$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeac…bd3cbacked Yes | 24c | 245$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e54…8715backed Yes | 27c | 235$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…0e75backed Yes | 27c | 190$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 16c | 184.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 95 | 23.2%22 W · 73 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…d203backed No | 73c | 170$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3b…f573backed Yes | 18c | 157.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0641…1985backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 9cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaac7…9ab1backed Yes | 24c | 145$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…e603backed Yes | 24c | 135$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ad…7a9bbacked No | 73c | 125$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +353.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 29c | 120.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08d0…b768backed No | 76c | 115$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +135.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe338…c2a7backed Yes | 24c | 110$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 33c | 103.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f7…382ebacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf31…b379backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6972…e036backed No | 73c | 95$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3998…5fdcbacked No | 76c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…8695backed No | 73c | 90$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf96f…86d8backed No | 73c | 90$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b69…3d19backed No | 76c | 85$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…26bfbacked Yes | 24c | 85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 66c | 84.64$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 14c | 75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba4…d828backed Yes | 34c | 74.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 15c | 67.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd933…9e40backed No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 29c | 53.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…00bfbacked No | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…3fa6backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b0…cdd9backed No | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbd…4912backed No | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4c…81a4backed No | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…a97abacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +151%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd591…7156backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff0…664cbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x539d…ccf3backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…76e5backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd79c…bba0backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x663e…5916backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1be0…e690backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 58-59°F on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 55°F or below on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 66°F or higher on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 56-57°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 60-61°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 62-63°F on March 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 64-65°F on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.