Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 62-63°F on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2140cc8b48146e3c7e306284611d013b31dfdcad9dc479b98a19f367c6c6e68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,411
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x92bd…019dbacked Yes | 15c | 800$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +355.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb553…a77bbacked Yes | 12c | 605$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 27cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…c1debacked Yes | 12c | 555$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +101.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a5…9f24backed Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +809.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfda3…7b0cbacked Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 10cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1de…9165backed Yes | 15c | 470$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7227…02f2backed Yes | 15c | 460$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +368.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bff…a1bfbacked Yes | 15c | 445$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 41cpaid | +309.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb160…812bbacked Yes | 12c | 415$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba21…0926backed Yes | 13c | 410$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +669.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa94e…c540backed Yes | 15c | 340$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c44…3d64backed No | 80c | 280$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86d…ac82backed Yes | 38c | 250$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c1…e8b0backed No | 16c | 198.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 14c | 193.7$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.18 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08d0…b768backed Yes | 15c | 190$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +135.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacad…3a3abacked Yes | 15c | 190$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +384.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…e8c0backed Yes | 12c | 185$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +328.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb47…bfccbacked Yes | 12c | 185$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3084…2638backed Yes | 12c | 165$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +235.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x413c…6111backed Yes | 13c | 160$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 28cpaid | +223.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb2…fe3dbacked Yes | 13c | 155$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +125.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 20c | 145.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.5 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2d…95d2backed Yes | 15c | 145$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b6…5bcebacked Yes | 15c | 137.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.83 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d62…f8eabacked Yes | 12c | 115$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 13c | 112.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.99 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbe…9945backed Yes | 12c | 110$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 22c | 105.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.45 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 78c | 99.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.99 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd471…174fbacked Yes | 15c | 90$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +150%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eea…3c96backed Yes | 12c | 85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +228.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3b…f573backed Yes | 33c | 45.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 62-63°F on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 55°F or below on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 66°F or higher on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 56-57°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 58-59°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 60-61°F on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 64-65°F on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.