Other European Leagues · resolved market
Spread: Casa Pia AC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0149a282bccf434032dfc0cc1c9a5153943dfa00e9295d0c40db2e40fc43825c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rio Ave FCof Casa Pia AC, Rio Ave FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,362
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,941
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,362 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Rio Ave FC | 71c | 1,436$1,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.59 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Casa Pia AC | 26c | 788.15$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.3 | 2,001 | 36.5%730 W · 1,271 L | -25.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Rio Ave FC | 72c | 772.45$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.25 | 546 | 50.4%275 W · 271 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Casa Pia AC | 27c | 488.15$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.8 | 2,068 | 48.1%995 W · 1,073 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Casa Pia AC | 13c | 386.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,240 | 39.2%486 W · 754 L | -35.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Casa Pia AC | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 70 | 24.3%17 W · 53 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Casa Pia AC | 43c | 222.43$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.62 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Casa Pia AC | 31c | 198.16$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.13 | 869 | 60.4%525 W · 344 L | +91.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Rio Ave FC | 69c | 193.16$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.88 | 2,012 | 35.5%714 W · 1,298 L | -27.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed Casa Pia AC | 29c | 146.42$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Rio Ave FC | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee19…555ebacked Casa Pia AC | 31c | 51.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Rio Ave FC | 69c | 28.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Rio Ave FC | 70c | 23.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Rio Ave FC | 69c | 23.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 536 | 55.2%296 W · 240 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Rio Ave FC | 73c | 22.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Casa Pia AC (-1.5)this page
- Casa Pia AC vs. Rio Ave FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Casa Pia AC vs. Rio Ave FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Casa Pia AC vs. Rio Ave FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Casa Pia AC vs. Rio Ave FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Casa Pia AC vs. Rio Ave FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Casa Pia AC vs. Rio Ave FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Casa Pia AC (-2.5)Rio Ave FC won
- Spread: Rio Ave FC (-1.5)Casa Pia AC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.