Premier League · resolved market
Will Derby County FC win on 2026-02-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0168b643f34a52730580b56663651f6f97e91187510adb12683f7318a9a13b8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,609
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,609 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Yes | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 351 | 28.5%100 W · 251 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2af2…ec6fbacked Yes | 25c | 1,200$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 76c | 1,068$807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.32 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 74c | 1,035$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.03 | 2,613 | 47.6%1,245 W · 1,368 L | +42.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 535 | 34.2%183 W · 352 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 26c | 782$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.78 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 6c | 734.01$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 1,426 | 44.3%632 W · 794 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Yes | 18c | 650$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 181 | 24.9%45 W · 136 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 17c | 602$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.93 | 320 | 37.2%119 W · 201 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 208 | 64.9%135 W · 73 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 6c | 400$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 334 | 22.2%74 W · 260 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed Yes | 18c | 400$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66de…fe04backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…c20dbacked Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 16c | 398.2$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.29 | 260 | 54.2%141 W · 119 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 24c | 386$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.64 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a62…fa34backed Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005c…a987backed Yes | 23c | 296.29$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.15 | 255 | 44.7%114 W · 141 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 26c | 284$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.84 | 1,146 | 42.8%490 W · 656 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 8c | 254.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 203 | 26.6%54 W · 149 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 292 | 38.4%112 W · 180 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 452 | 24.8%112 W · 340 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked Yes | 24c | 166.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 177 | 48%85 W · 92 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Yes | 24c | 101$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 722 | 49.9%360 W · 362 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…a1a8backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 122 | 41.8%51 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7e…50aabacked No | 75c | 57.88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x828c…fb4cbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8207…7edbbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 83 | 38.6%32 W · 51 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65a6…3e59backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 169 | 53.3%90 W · 79 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Derby County FC win on 2026-02-07?this page
- Will Derby County FC vs. Ipswich Town FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-02-07?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.