Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01ad3a64cb7be22b0e7660b30b7a100d2cd3fabbba9380b48558fb7dcb0c267e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,181
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,181 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes | 62c | 336.7$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.5 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 12c | 333.02$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 10c | 192.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 53c | 147.64$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.57 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 29c | 135.51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.21 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 27c | 131.7$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.26 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 48c | 128.2$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.31 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 66c | 122.74$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.24 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 26c | 100.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 70c | 96.91$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 46c | 92.62$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 21c | 92.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…e5c9backed Yes | 17c | 85.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 105 | 24.8%26 W · 79 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 29c | 85.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 26c | 85.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 62.42$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 62c | 56.62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…467cbacked Yes | 31c | 55.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 29c | 52.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.27 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 57c | 51.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad9…2647backed Yes | 29c | 50.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked Yes | 66c | 46.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 71c | 43.14$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 70c | 38.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed No | 55c | 36.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -9.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 58c | 26.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked No | 79c | 25.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 50c | 24.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 52c | 22.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed No | 71c | 20.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9f…799cbacked Yes | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 72cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 73c | 14.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on July 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.