Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01dbbdbb03983058dee526f0e3398ce21c40dbb414a1c580cd3e878bd3c1e269
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,682
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,254
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,682 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 758.16$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.97 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 12c | 172.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 149.54$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.26 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…1646backed Yes | 57c | 99.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20b6…c52cbacked Yes | 50c | 99.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c0…1a74backed Yes | 45c | 96.4$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 40c | 91$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.7 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 53c | 89.8$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.83 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 64.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 74c | 59.75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.17 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 27c | 57.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.01 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 38c | 52.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5801…ceeebacked No | 62c | 45.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 44c | 43.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x117a…01babacked Yes | 34c | 41.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x001e…8dfabacked Yes | 45c | 40.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 54c | 39.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x896c…804bbacked Yes | 57c | 35.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 60c | 33.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x644c…9b6abacked Yes | 62c | 32.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 62c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 40c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…0669backed Yes | 38c | 28.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 59c | 26.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb99a…c8acbacked Yes | 44c | 24.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +126.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 71c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 59c | 18.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 77c | 17.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 75c | 15.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7d…fd73backed No | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -7.0wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 74c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C or below on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.