Fed Rates · resolved market
Jerome Powell federally charged by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01eea283e8d0bab4d2b68b7f6cf810c302a63582fe5f1ff6b9d339ace4ff4457
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $106,157
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $117,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,157 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe20…2042backed Yes | 2c | 9,344$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.32 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 6c | 7,500$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.94 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 4,316$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.65 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -94.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 4c | 3,282$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.18 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8824…5c8bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,111$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x685d…d895backed Yes | 5c | 3,061$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe186…79e9backed Yes | 1c | 2,875$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9673…23bcbacked Yes | 6c | 2,412$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 4c | 2,200$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.53 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,000$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 1c | 1,282$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec23…bfbabacked Yes | 2c | 956.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21b4…6a27backed Yes | 3c | 894.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ffb…b2f8backed Yes | 5c | 437.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x237c…93ffbacked Yes | 4c | 424.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb678…f74dbacked Yes | 6c | 199.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.