South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Independiente vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0234df3eb11ed4388f4e273a54639f7457ed5b575fd4a2f194d3e5bd74737d79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 50c | 2,391$1,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,185.8 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x854d…deb0backed Over | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 47c | 701.13$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.37 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed Under | 44c | 681.82$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -7.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 46c | 568.94$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.68 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 40c | 403.59$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.19 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…27fbbacked Over | 61c | 300.05$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ff…93c3backed Over | 60c | 221.43$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1d…bb61backed Over | 61c | 206.79$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 146 | 54.1%79 W · 67 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d31…79fbbacked Over | 60c | 199.43$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a72…ce3ebacked Over | 60c | 172.05$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cf…3f01backed Over | 60c | 169.55$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 63c | 158.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.54 | 134 | 57.5%77 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…4c25backed Over | 60c | 154.12$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed5…869abacked Over | 60c | 145.83$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 40c | 120$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 250 | 21.6%54 W · 196 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…450abacked Over | 60c | 113.51$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fd…1596backed Over | 60c | 108.75$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfda5…966cbacked Over | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50fc…ba9abacked Over | 58c | 77$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 43c | 51.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc716…f0d7backed Over | 59c | 41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b0…e756backed Over | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…fd36backed Under | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Over | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…bf48backed Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6c…2854backed Over | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x128f…47afbacked Over | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 58c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Independiente vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: O/U 1.5this page
- CA Independiente vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Independiente vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: O/U 2.5Under won
- CA Independiente vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA Independiente vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA Independiente (-1.5)Estudiantes de La Plata won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.