Mls · resolved market
Austin FC leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0248015f7f1264ab77da431c74a4e193ab0a5b124f15ffcaf4240551926c86b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,199
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,318
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,199 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 72c | 449.74$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.62 | 215 | 47.9%103 W · 112 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 28c | 417.54$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.91 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 18c | 316.37$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.86 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 59c | 273.3$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.8 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 72c | 251.72$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.48 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 40c | 225.32$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.13 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 75c | 204.52$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.13 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked No | 57c | 172$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.69 | 191 | 72.3%138 W · 53 L | +36.8wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 41c | 151.01$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.91 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Yes | 25c | 150.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | -11.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Yes | 57c | 130.92$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.39 | 222 | 69.4%154 W · 68 L | +31.4wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed No | 57c | 57.02$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 273 | 44.3%121 W · 152 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 187 | 74.3%139 W · 48 L | +33.5wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 50c | 47.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…bbbabacked Yes | 42c | 28.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +102.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 41c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed No | 59c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67f6…1651backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked No | 72c | 24.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Austin FC leading at halftime?this page
- Austin FC vs. Seattle Sounders FC: Draw at halftime?Yes won
- Seattle Sounders FC leading at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.