Stocks · resolved market
Will Meta (META) close above $640 on March 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02549597c1b9c7c6d5201810c1cebc59a58cd001a318b13268ada2450940ec86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,716
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,716 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e0e…7a3ebacked Yes | 38c | 2,587$983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,603.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe193…d884backed Yes | 38c | 2,535$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,571.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad8…6be0backed No | 45c | 1,500$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.79 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…f57abacked No | 62c | 1,307$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e07…dcadbacked No | 62c | 1,283$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff0…afcabacked No | 62c | 1,280$794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf97f…3307backed Yes | 55c | 1,255$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…5070backed No | 62c | 1,252$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…99d0backed Yes | 34c | 793.62$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 19c | 769.27$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625 | 1,337 | 47.2%631 W · 706 L | +44.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe285…5754backed No | 66c | 613.84$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 4c | 379.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1,816 | 48.9%888 W · 928 L | +142.6wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 10c | 286.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.79 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 55c | 275.48$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.46 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…f103backed No | 66c | 177.98$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…cbbebacked Yes | 11c | 122.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.17 | 127 | 27.6%35 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 17c | 68.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.9 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7771…009fbacked Yes | 56c | 47.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 56c | 34.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 40c | 27.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…b7f8backed Yes | 57c | 23.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 45cpaid | +146.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca9…37d1backed Yes | 55c | 21.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc366…8d8dbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 71c | 14.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Meta (META) close above $640 on March 9?this page
- Will Meta (META) close above $650 on March 9?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $660 on March 9?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $670 on March 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.