Stocks · resolved market
Will Meta (META) close above $650 on March 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94a879c2872dd592016874da327f609962d785bd10e701eb6b6e0f72c381455d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,340
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,340 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 2c | 930$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 1,783 | 49%874 W · 909 L | +142.6wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe634…fae1backed Yes | 31c | 302.89$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -46%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 231.3$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.39 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…a764backed Yes | 31c | 202.88$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.89 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +539.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 30c | 182.37$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.71 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb44e…681abacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…70c5backed No | 69c | 75.16$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06e…a514backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 69c | 62.52$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf877…77e1backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 29 | 86.2%25 W · 4 L | +4.8wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb28…b1a2backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca9…37d1backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd8…1de3backed No | 79c | 39.24$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Meta (META) close above $650 on March 9?this page
- Will Meta (META) close above $640 on March 9?Yes won
- Will Meta (META) close above $660 on March 9?No won
- Will Meta (META) close above $670 on March 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.