Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Magdeburg vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x025522ceff89ab18071401c6dd7801f08c8a3569930bafacc58b008beabc7e57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,764
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,598
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,764 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f8d…a19bbacked Under | 59c | 3,369$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 41c | 2,729$1,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,622.53 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d46…3248backed Under | 4c | 350$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 290.77$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.74 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 75c | 275$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.75 | 63 | 66.7%42 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed Over | 65c | 200.63$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.51 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Under | 63c | 189$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.07 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Over | 37c | 189$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.07 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over | 42c | 179.62$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.62 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8010…04e4backed Over | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +10.0wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Under | 35c | 144$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 58c | 125$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 47c | 107.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.13 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63a4…6c04backed Under | 50c | 101.46$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.73 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +33%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 50c | 75.66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.83 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 64c | 64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9902…34b3backed Under | 34c | 43.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 45c | 33.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 58c | 32.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 90 | 68.9%62 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb71…434dbacked Over | 74c | 26.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 3.5this page
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. VfL Bochum: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Magdeburg vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: 1. FC Magdeburg (-1.5)1. FC Magdeburg won
- Spread: 1. FC Magdeburg (-2.5)1. FC Magdeburg won
- Spread: VfL Bochum (-1.5)1. FC Magdeburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.